‘Youth vote will push ANC out’ – analyst

The ANC may be pulling out all the stops to convince voters it will do better for them ahead of next week’s general election, but the party is going to fall short this time, experts insist.

Political analysts Prof Dirk Kotzé, from the University of South Africa, and Dominic Maphaka, a scholar from North-West University, both say the numbers don’t lie after several recent opinion polls indicated the ruling party would lose the 29 May election.

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‘ANC will not emerge victorious’

Maphaka said: “The ANC will not emerge victorious in the upcoming elections. The party’s campaigning strategy is largely based on indisputable past achievements but the realities on the ground demonstrate it is failing to sustain the achievements recorded in the early days of democracy.

“The people on the ground want sustainable jobs and basic services, which are absent. Recounting the transformative policies and welfare programmes that do not bring structural changes to the poor majority is an old strategy that cannot save the ANC in these polls.”

Maphaka said the youth, in particular, would punish the ANC because they were extremely dissatisfied with it and they had found alternatives in new parties.

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Alluding to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s campaign message that the ANC would cross the 50% plus one victory mark, Kotzé said it was typical of politicians to show a brave face ahead of a challenging election.

“Ramaphosa wants to paint a good picture,” he said. “He can’t concede publicly that they might lose, but what he is saying is not necessarily a reflection of reality. Political parties can present a good story because they want votes.”

Voters likely to stick to their choices

Voters were likely to stick to their choices and not be swayed by electioneering rhetoric.

“The campaigning that is happening will not change the voters’ decisions. Many voters have made up their minds about who exactly they will vote for on election day,” Kotzé said, adding: “The information we have says the ANC will lose.”

Maphaka said the emergence of alternative parties has given hope to the youth who see them as potential agents of change.

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“The majority of youth had political apathy and saw no need to participate in previous elections. So, the youth, as the group that will determine this year’s outcome, will vote the ANC out of power,” he said.

ANC might pull through despite the odds

However, independent political analyst Khanyi Magubane believed the ANC would pull through despite the odds.

“I generally don’t trust polls. They can be subjective and respondents can be asked leading questions. Polls test opinions, but they don’t test voter patterns in the real world. Nationally, I think the ANC will just scrape through, not with a convincing win, though.”