‘You lie’: ANC faces historic decline in upcoming general election, analysts warn

The general election on 29 May couldn’t have come at a worse time for the ANC, according to at least one political analyst, while others believe the ruling party will take a significant dip.

Two in three people registered to vote in next month’s general election believe the country is on the wrong path.

And if recent surveys are to be believed, then the ANC will be hit the hardest, registering its worse performance at an election in three decades.

ANC will potentially fall below 50%

Political analysts anticipate the ANC’s share of the vote will potentially fall below 50%… and possibly reach as low as 45%.

Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said: “These elections are happening at the worst possible time for the ANC: the economic plight of the country, the dismal performance on just about every measurement for South Africa, this represents a fail. It’s a fail notice for the ANC itself.”

Political analyst Sandile Swana said: “The ANC is going to lose the majority for the first time, to the extent there is a significant number that don’t believe the ANC will carry out any promises it announces.

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“In the survey they did themselves, 55% of ANC members do not believe what the ANC says.

“That is written in [former president Thabo] Mbeki’s letter, the 17-page letter he wrote to Paul Mashatile last year.

“So there’s nothing new there. The voters and members of the ANC do not believe what the office bearers of the ANC are saying.”

Latest Ipsos poll

The latest Ipsos poll showed, if South Africa headed to voting stations tomorrow, the ANC would get just 40.2%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 11.5%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) 21.9% and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party 8.4% of votes.

More than 35% of registered voters had expressed there was “no political party that truly represents their views”.

“The discontent among South African voters is further evidenced with a mere 23% of registered voters believing the country is moving in the right direction, while 66% think the country’s current direction of travel is wrong,” the poll recorded.

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First-time voter Andile Mchunu said she’s conflicted about whether the country was moving in a good direction or not.

“It’s very stressful when you don’t see yourself reflected in any party’s platform,” she said.

“I am an unemployed graduate and the unemployment rate scares me.

“I have listened to most parties’ manifestos and I wasn’t touched by one. All we get from these parties are scandals, yet they want us to stand in queues and cast our votes for scandals.”

Face-to-face interviews

Mari Harris, Ipsos sub-Sahara Africa knowledge director, said the poll was conducted through face-to-face interviews in March and April, surveying a randomly selected national sample across all nine provinces, settlement types and rural areas.

“Those who indicated they were registered to vote [a total of 2 545] were separately analysed.

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“The results for registered voters were weighted and projected using the IEC registration figures, which indicated the voters’ roll contains 27 698 201 names,” said Harris.

Silke said the polls indicated a distinct weakness for the ANC. However, he expects the ANC vote to recover moderately in the last month of the campaign.

If the ANC vote did get into the mid-40s, it wouldn’t need a coalition with the EFF and should be able to find other coalition partners among the smaller parties.

He said this would allow it to remain the dominant player into the future, although an ANC at below 50% will result in a weak government.