Election countdown: Undecided voters hold the key, say experts

With political parties on the final push towards the May 2024 polls, there may be a swing towards or away from parties as undecided voters finally make up their minds, experts say.

Policy analyst Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said: “The undecided exemplify a type of political flexibility most of us often claim to admire, but often denigrate in practice.

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“A healthy portion of undecided voters seem to understand when they are out of step with their political party and this sometimes drives them to the opposing candidate.

“If you are a normal human trying to read recent voter attitude survey results, especially about voter registration and political party identity, you might be feeling confused.

“You may have seen reports that citizens are disinterested in political parties, and that some registered first-time voters are not planning to vote, which sounds worse.

“The latest survey results reflect what happened many months ago, not what is happening now. Assessing attitudes over a six weeks would be “better than the annual or quarterly figures, which are strongly affected by factors that are now in the rearview mirror”.

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He added: “The overall picture is actually pretty good. “More and more citizens are showing interest in voting in these competitive elections, and more and more parties are investing more time and resources to attract undecided and switched voters.”

Battle for undecided voters

Independent political analyst Daniel Silke said there could be “some movement in the last two weeks of the campaign”.

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“This is the time when voters crystallise their intentions about the elections, for undecided voters, when big parties are going to try and woo undecided voters – all those who are trying to vote for smaller parties – trying to vote for coalitions.

“It is time to consolidate votes for bigger parties with messaging being critical,” said Silke.

He said the latest surveys showing the ANC would gain more that 50% would “still leave the ANC deeply damaged”.

Political analyst Sandile Swana said the reason for the ANC’s decline in voter support was due to “lack of service delivery”.

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“Votes are not determined by short-term experiences, but by the day-to-day experiences,” said Swana.