SA enters era of coalition politics, analysts warn

South Africa has entered a delicate era of coalition politics, political analysts cautioned yesterday.

With the ANC not having won an outright majority, this week is crucial for its national executive committee to endorse its working committee recommendation on finding a suitable coalition partner – paving the way for the formation of a government.

Ideology could pose a hindrance

While adherence to constitutionality could be a positive factor in an ANC-DA political marriage, ideology could pose a hindrance, University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood said.

Political expert Melanie Verwoerd said the ANC has insisted on constitutionality and ideology.

“The DA has said there are a number of things to look at, with the EFF and the MK party having said they want the constitution scrapped or reviewed.

“MK wants President Cyril Ramaphosa to go before they can talk,” said Verwoerd.

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“You need an agreement on the president.

Horse trading crucial

“Horse trading and coalition agreements are crucial.”

If no agreement is reached on the choice of president, there should be another vote conducted within seven days – in terms of Schedule 3 of the constitution.

Election analyst Michael Atkins warned of an instability of a minority government.

“If some parties abstain, it is difficult to obtain a majority of the vote.

“Obviously, a minority government could be unstable, as it opens the possibility of motions of no confidence later, as we have seen in some municipalities,” warned Etkins.

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Conceding on the implications of not winning an outright majority, the ANC said the results showed “people’s concerns about shortcomings in governance and delivery”.

“The ANC is committed to the formation of a government that reflects the will of the people – able to govern effectively,” the party said.

ANC will be having disussions over the next few days

“Over the next few days, the ANC will be having discussions within the organisation, with other parties and stakeholders on how best to establish national and provincial governments that reflect the will of the people – able to take the country forward,” it said.

Henwood said after the gazetting of the results, parliament should be called, with the first order of business being the swearing in of MPs.

“This will be followed by the election of the speaker, deputy speaker and the president.

“The process will lead to the president forming the executive – ideally based on completed agreements and a coalition being confirmed,” said Henwood.

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A “broad framework of priorities and immediate requirements for government, were key”, Henwood said.

“I cannot see how detailed policy agreements will be concluded, given the complexities and challenges – though this is the ideal outcome.

Situation requires a responsive electorate

“The situation requires a responsive electorate, not afraid to choose and change their vote if they deem this in their interest.

“In SA, it is historic for there to be factors driving a very loyal electorate – not seeing their way open to change the vote for another party.

“Not being open for a coalition change, drives the local electorate to rather not vote,” said Henwood.

“Elite interests also drive a lot of what happens in South Africa – something we have seem in Tshwane with the DA and EFF.”

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