Can ANC reverse decline? Ramaphosa’s confidence clashes with survey findings

“Let’s do more, together” is the African National Congress (ANC)’s key campaign line ahead of the provincial and national elections on 29 May.

The ruling party is “working towards a decisive victory,” according to its president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who was elected ANC president at its 54th conference in Nasrec in December 2017.

Ramaphosa became the ruling party’s 13th president since its founding.

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“Polls are polls. Opinions, surveys or otherwise – we know as the ANC, how well we’re going to do. Our people, in their hearts of hearts, know how well the ANC is going to do,” said Ramaphosa during the party’s campaign rally at Phuthaditjhaba Stadium in QwaQwa, Free State.

WORKING TOWARDA A DECISIVE VICTORY. ⚫🟢🟡

“We know as the ANC, how well we are going to do.” – ANC President, Cde Cyril Ramaphosa.

📍 Phuthaditjhaba Stadium QwaQwa, Free State
 #VoteANC2024 pic.twitter.com/x5giSaXLML

— African National Congress (@MYANC) April 28, 2024

“We are certain of victory. I am certain of the victory of the ANC, as opposed to what is being said by doomsayers, as opposed to what is being said by those who don’t wish us well. All I have to say is that ‘watch this space!’ After 29 May, you will see what the ANC is worth. That’s all I’m saying.”

Party’s decline

However, polls and political analysts reckon the ruling party will get its lowest voter support yet on 29 May.

Voter apathy has been an issue for the country’s elections as the disappointed young and old stay away due to several issues including service delivery and the high unemployment rate.

The emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) is also expected to take a sizeable vote from the ANC.

The party joined the political scene in December 2023 after former president Jacob Zuma announced that he would not be campaigning for the ANC.

He further called on his supporters to support the MK party.

Friction has ensued since then, with the two parties publicly criticising each other in spats that have ended in court.

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The ruling party has lost its court battle to stop the MK party from using the name and logo linked to its armed wing uMkhonto weSizwe.

Is this a sign of the ANC’s decline?

In the 2019 national and provincial elections, 26 756 649 South Africans registered to vote. Of these, 10 026 475, translating to 57.50% of the vote chose the ANC as their party of choice.

This was followed by Democratic Alliance (DA) with 20.77% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 10.80%.

In the 2014 elections, the ANC got 62.15% of the vote, 65.90% in 2009 and 69.69% in 2004.

This is a continued decline with each election.

While its leaders believe the party will do even better on 29 May, however, polls and surveys suggest otherwise.

The latest Ipsos poll suggests a 40.2% support for the ANC and 21.9% for the DA.

The EFF is expected to get 11.5% of the vote, with the MK party coming fourth with 8.4% of votes.

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Ipsos conducted face-to-face interviews in March and April 2024, surveyed 2 545 registered voters across the country.

According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), 27 698 201 South Africans are registered to vote.

‘MK party a threat’

Political analysts say no different.

Prof Lesiba Teffo told The Citizen the ANC would be ousted by a combined MK, IFP and DA after the election.

“The IFP and DA already have a sealed pact, but I don’t see why MK can’t work with the IFP. On that basis alone, it throws the ANC out of the question, including the EFF.”

He said a deal was sealed between the DA and IFP as part of the Multi-Party Charter for SA to cooperate.

The MK party could also join them to remove the ANC from power.

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Others, however, have cautioned against underestimating the support of the ruling party. It is only after the elections that South Africans will know where the ANC stands.

Additional reporting by Eric Naki