A fight for survival: Next political moves will be crucial ahead of 2026 elections

If one examines South Africa’s evolving political landscape since the 2024 general election, it is clear that political parties are already gearing up for the 2026 local government elections.

The country is less than three years away from these pivotal municipal elections, set to take place between 2 November 2026 and 1 February 2027.

This comes in the wake of a historic national and provincial election last year, where the African National Congress (ANC) fell below the 50% threshold needed to form a government for the first time since 1994, securing just 40.2% of the vote.

The ANC now faces the challenge of rebuilding its support base and regaining ground at the local level in 2026.

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Since the 2021 local government elections, the ANC has lost control of several municipalities, leaving many councils hung and reliant on coalition arrangements for governance.

The rise of hung councils across all 257 municipalities has been significant, increasing from 29 in 2000 to 82 in 2021.

A hung council occurs when no single party secures a majority, making coalitions a necessity.

As the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) shifts its focus toward preparing for the 2026 local elections, political parties will need to solidify their strategies and engage voters on a local level.

A political analyst weighed in on how pivotal the upcoming local elections will be.

2026 local government elections

Research director at North-West University (NWU) Professor André Duvenhage told The Citizen that while the upcoming elections would be pivotal for most political parties, for some, it could become a fight for their very survival.

“Our political spectrum is changing on a constant basis and as a result of that, I believe that many parties are going to face challenges,” he said.

Duvenhage indicated that the ANC has been assessing the country’s political landscape and recognised the need for adaptation.

However, the political analyst predicted that the party would continue to lose electoral support at the local level in other provinces, mirroring the declines already seen in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

“The ANC is probably going to perform even lower than their national and provincial outcomes in the 2024 elections.”

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He anticipates the Patriotic Alliance (PA) to pose a significant challenge to the Democratic Alliance (DA) for municipal seats across the Western Cape.

“Looking at some of the other parties, I think the EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] is going to be in trouble. They are normally performing at a lower level when it comes to provinces and at local level in comparison to their national profile.”

Duvenhage suggested that the EFF’s performance might be further weakened by the ongoing leadership exodus within the party.

Despite this, he noted that the EFF maintains concentrated support in regions like North West and Limpopo, allowing it to retain some degree of influence.

Simultaneously, the MK party appeared poised to gain traction in the upcoming municipal elections.

“I believe the MK party, with a lot of concentrated support in areas like KZN and Mpumalanga, may consolidate their power and may take control of some local municipalities,” the analyst continued.

GNU impact on 2026 elections

Duvenhage acknowledged that the Government of National Unity (GNU) could influence the dynamics of the 2026 elections, depending on whether the coalition achieves success or faces setbacks.

“The performance is going to be crucial and it will also be interesting to see if the Government of National Unity will form some sort of alliance before the elections to gain momentum and to achieve success.

“I believe it may be in the interest of the ANC at that time to enter into some sort of alliance especially if [President] Cyril Ramaphosa is still at the helm, but many things can change in the ANC before 2026.

“There are a number of scenarios and this may have a major impact on the future of South Africa politics,” he explained.

New laws to stabilise coalitions?

Regarding the importance of finalising the Municipal Coalitions Bill before the elections, the analyst emphasised the need for legislation to effectively manage coalition governments, ensuring improved service delivery at the local level.

“We need legislation to regulate and stabilise our political environment, especially when it comes to coalition politics. In that sense, it is extremely critical to have a balance to formalise agreements legally and also to enforce rules.”

He added that the number of hung councils in municipalities could potentially double.

When will the elections be held?

As for the likely timing of the election, Duvenhage indicated that scheduling it towards the end or early in the new year would be challenging.

“Although not impossible, I think the likelihood is November, definitely not December and also not January so I think the choice will be between a date in November or February.”

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