Is the DA starting to feel electoral pinch of losing Maimane?

This week’s by-elections have proven to be a litmus test for the Democratic Alliance (DA), which is beginning to show a decline in the black townships in Gauteng after it lost its black leader, Mmusi Maimane.

With Maimane not leading its campaigns, the DA gave up on contesting the black areas in Tshwane in what has been interpreted as fear of losing to the ANC.

It has also lost a crucial ward at Eldorado, suggesting the Tshwane and Johannesburg metros were getting out of its reach.

ALSO READ: ANC in Joburg ‘humbled’ by voters’ support in by-elections

Maimane, who resigned in protest after the party refused to accept change to accommodate black interests, gave the DA credence in the townships.

The ANC showed a steady growth in Tshwane and there was a small leap by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), but the DA underperformed its expectations in a metro for which it had been wrestling for control with the ANC.

The DA decided to contest only three of the nine wards up for grabs in Tshwane, leaving wards in the black areas of Soshanguve and Winterveld to the ANC and EFF to fight over.

It worked because it retained ward 44, which it had taken in 2016 with a whopping 89% and 75% at the national election in 2019. It dropped 24% to 65% in Wednesday’s by election.

The EFF improved from 4% in 2016 to 31% in a mainly Afrikaans-speaking area left election analysts mystified.

Smaller parties performed remarkably well, which was clearly demonstrated in ward 18 in Eldorado Park, Gauteng, where the DA was shocked to be handed a trashing by the Patriotic Alliance (PA) in its traditional stronghold, and its poor showing in Tshwane.

Besides telling the story of the DA’s decline among coloured voters outside the Western Cape, the PA victory in Eldorado Park indicated a shift of coloured voters towards a party that openly claimed to represent their interests. Could it be that voters now vote on issues rather than loyalty?

The victory was a reward for the PA campaigning vigorously around issues that mattered to the coloured community.

The PA is spreading its wings beyond the traditional coloured residential areas in Gauteng to coloured-populated previously white suburbs, such as Roodepoort.

The party was recently seen campaigning and recruiting membership in Florida, where it promised to fix existing service delivery issues.

Election analysts saw the PA victory as a “politically strategic win”.

Analyst Tessa Dooms tweeted in response to the Eldorado Park results that voters there were disillusioned but she should have added the bigger parties are losing ground just when the debate on fielding independent candidates was heating up.

Eldorado Park was on DA leader John Steenhuisen’s radar. During his last by-election campaign in Benoni and Germiston last year, he made it clear the party wanted to secure Eldorado Park.

He blamed its poor showing on a “mistake” alliance with the EFF in Johannesburg. In Eldorado Park’s ward 18, the PA jumped from 3% in 2016 to 62% on Wednesday against the DA’s 22%.