IRR poll shows decline in ANC support, EFF growth remains high

Ahead of the national elections in May this year, the governing African National Congress’ (ANC’s) “rejuvenation” has slowed and declined, while the growth of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) remains high.

This is according to the first set of results from the Institute of Race Relation’s (IRR) recent February 2019 election poll into the electoral landscape ahead of the general elections.

In a statement on Thursday, head of politics and governance at the IRR Gareth van Onselen said the governing party currently stood on 54.7% nationally, down 1.3 percentage points from the institute’s December poll (56%); the opposition party (the Democratic Alliance – DA) currently stands on 21.8% nationally, up 3.1 percentage points from December (18%); and the EFF currently stands on 12.2% nationally, up 1.2 percentage points from December (11%).

“In Gauteng, the ANC is well below a majority, with EFF growth remaining high, while in the Western Cape, the DA majority is on a knife-edge, with smaller parties showing some growth,” van Onselen said.

This the IRR’s third poll on the electoral landscape –the first was conducted in September 2018, followed by a “snap poll” in December.

ALSO READ: IRR poll shows ANC support at 56%, DA and EFF down

Van Onselen said the latest poll was in the field between February 12 and 26 2019.

“The sample was fully demographically representative and comprised only registered voters. A total of 1,611 respondents were questioned. The national margin of error is 3.3%,” he said.

These samples, he said, were supplemented by “two fully demographically representative sub-samples for Gauteng”, with a size of 502 registered voters and the Western Cape sample with a size of 405 registered voters.

“The margin of error for the Gauteng sub-sample was 3.8%, and for the Western Cape sub-sample, 5.9%. The confidence level is 95%,” van Onselen said.

The poll was conducted telephonically, he added.

Van Onselen said it was important to note that the poll was not a prediction of the outcome of this year’s elections.

The governing party’s current standing at 54.7% nationally, according to the poll, is a 7.4 percentage points decline from the 62.1% the party secured in the 2014 general elections, van Onselen said.

“On a 71% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 55%,” he said.

According to the IRR’s recent poll, the DA stands at 21.8% nationally, a 0.4 percentage points decline from the 22.2% the party secured in 2014, van Onselen said.

“On a 71% turnout scenario, support for the party increases to 24%,” he said.

The EFF currently stands on 12.2% nationally, up 5.9 percentage points from the 6.3% it secured in 2014, van Onselen said.

“On a 71% turnout scenario, support for the party decreases to 11.2%,” he said.

Van Onselen said the DA’s support base remained the most racially diverse, while a breakdown of the ANC’s support base by race shows that it comprised 96.2% black voters, 1.1% white voters, 2.2% coloured voters, and 0.5% Indian voters.

He said a breakdown of the DA’s support base by race shows that it comprised 27.3% black voters, 36.0% white voters, 28.0% coloured voters, and 8.6% Indian voters, van Onselen said.

The EFF’s support base broken down by race shows that it comprises 98.1% black voters, 0.4% white voters, 1.3% coloured voters, and 0.1% Indian voters, van Onselen said.

Of all the black voters polled, 68% of them indicated they would vote ANC, compared to 16% for the EFF and 8% for the DA.

Meanwhile, 71% of all white voters polled indicated they would vote DA, compared to 5% for the ANC and 0% for the EFF.

Of all the coloured voters polled, 67%  indicated they would vote DA, compared to 13% for the ANC and 2% for the EFF.

Of all the Indian voters polled, 72% of Indian voters indicated they would vote DA, compared to 10% for the ANC, and 1% for the EFF.

According to Van Onselen’s analysis, the ANC’s general decline from 2014 “can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF”.

“The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters.

“Where those voters end up on 8 May will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties.

“It is clear those 5% to 10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have, to one degree or another, shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months.

“Initially, and on the back of Jacob Zuma’s disastrous electoral impact, they had shifted almost entirely to the EFF,” he said.

However, he noted that the governing party “managed to claw some of that support back in the last two months of 2018”, reducing that of the EFF.

Revelations made at the commission of inquiry into state capture over allegations of corruption involving Bosasa and government departments and officials and Eskom’s implementation of stage 4 load-shedding, among others, has over the past two months seen some of the “alienated black ANC voters” shifting back to the EFF.

“As of February, the ANC thus looks like it will battle to reach its internal national election target of 60%. However, it is still possible, with a good campaign over the coming two months, to once again win back some of those alienated but fluid voters it has lost to the EFF,” Van Onselen said.

“Internal incoherence and infighting” have cost the DA, in particular in the Western Cape, Van Onselen said.

“Over the last two years, it appears the number of voters [the DA] has systematically consolidated under its banner from other smaller parties over the last two decades have returned to those parties.

“As a result, although within the margin of error, both the ACDP and FF+ have a good showing on the Western Cape provincial ballot.

“Likewise, the advent of the Good Movement, which, although only polling at 2.5% on the provincial ballot, could, together with parties like the ACDP and FF+, be the difference between the DA being able to retain its majority or not.”

The full IRR report can be found here.

(Compiled by Makhosandile Zulu)

For more news your way, download The Citizen’s app for iOS and Android.