New poll shows support for ANC close to 40% a month before elections

If South Africans headed to the polls tomorrow, the African National Congress (ANC) would get 40.2%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) 21.9%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 11.5% and the start-up uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party 8.4% of votes. 

This is according to the latest poll by multinational market research company Ipsos.

Former corruption-accused president Jacob Zuma’s MK party, which was established in December 2023, has edged its way into fourth position, winning more support than the myriad of new parties altogether.

ANC ‘struggling to impress voters’ – Ipsos poll

With mere weeks left before the 2024 general elections is set to take place on 29 May, the Ipsos poll also revealed that the ANC appears to be struggling to impress voters.

Ipsos is considered the most extensive face-to-face poll of South African voting intentions and political perceptions. 

According to the poll, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises.

“Three decades after the historic 1994 elections, South Africans are once again facing a pivotal moment. The uncertainty and apprehension surrounding the potential outcome and consequences of the 2024 elections echo the feelings experienced by the nation on 27 April 1994,” said Ipsos Sub-Saharan Africa Knowledge director, Mari Harris.

Her research has found that 35% of South Africans surveyed say no party represents their views.

Only 23% of them said the country is moving in the right direction, while “two-thirds (66%) think the country’s ‘direction of travel’ is wrong”.

Ramaphosa could be first ANC president to get below 50%

Earlier in April, President Cyril Ramaphosa urged the National Executive Committee (NEC) to get its act together.

If the ANC does not get 57% (what it polled in the 2019 election), Ramaphosa’s future comes into play. A result below 50% would make him the first ANC president in 30 years to fail to reach that mark in an election.  

MK party phenomenon

“The official formation of the MK party in December 2023 had a profound effect on the distribution of support among the leading political parties over the last few months,” Ipsos said.

According to the poll, the emergence of the MK party has halted the advances made by the EFF, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), with some red beret supporters migrating to the new party.

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The 82-year-old Zuma’s party also appears to be giving the ANC a run for its money, especially in KZN.

KZN has the second-highest number of voters after Gauteng. Voters will write the election results in these two provinces.  

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DA on track; uncertainty in KZN

“Meanwhile, the DA is maintaining its position, attracting the support of about a fifth of the electorate,” Ipsos stated.

“As the campaign enters its final weeks, uncertainty is highest in KwaZulu-Natal, where almost a fifth of the electorate has not yet decided which party or candidate they will vote for.

“The Inkatha Freedom Party’s (IFP) support is mainly concentrated in KZN, while ActionSA’s support comes primarily from Gauteng. Although the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) has low overall support, it comes from across the country.”

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Crucial female vote

The poll noted that with women comprising 55.24% of registered voters, political parties would be wise to focus on the views and opinions of women during the final month of campaigning.

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