Elections: Research says youth will ‘ditch ANC’

Youth unemployment and lack of opportunities may sway young people away from the governing ANC, according to a study.

The research – conducted in 2023 by the Centre for Social Development in Africa – found youth to be 1.5 times more likely to vote for an opposition party than for the ANC – in contrast to the older age of group 35 to 60 years.

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Lead researcher Prof Leila Patel of the University of Johannesburg said the youth voter turnout in the 29 May elections could have a major impact on the polls.

“The study findings showed that the age of voters matters in their choice of political parties and their preference for opposition parties,” she said.

“Besides the dire youth unemployment situation in the country of 33% and lack of opportunities, young people have less of a partisan political identity, and are less tied to the past than the older generation who have a stronger allegiance to the ANC.

“What the research shows, for instance, a high voter turnout of youth is likely to favour opposition parties. This may particularly benefit the EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters], whose major support comes from the youth.”

Patel said a sample of 3 511 participants was interviewed in a nationally representative survey to understand why they chose a particular party. Of these, 51% fell into the youth category of 18 to 34 year olds.

SA faces economic inequality, joblessness, poverty and inadequate services, worsening the socio-economic divide.

The World Bank projects the economy to grow by 3.8% and reach 4.1% by 2025. The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) reports 27.79 million registered voters, with over 55% being female. Youth aged 18 to 39 make up 42% (11.7 million) of voters, highlighting their crucial role in the upcoming elections.

Lesego Moloi, an unemployed graduate said it was not surprising because the ANC failed to create employment opportunities for young people.

“There are a lot of concerns that I have about the state we are in as South Africans, especially as an unemployed young person,” she said.

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“I feel the ANC does address the issues of young people but I think that their strategy is not sustainable, because it’s contract work after that contract expires a person goes back to the same situation. It’s been years and people are hungry for change.”

However, community leader Thabang Malebye said the ruling party was the problem. “Today’s ANC seems to have lost its vision.

“From Nelson Mandela’s presidency until now, they appear disconnected from their original values and mission.

“We know who the party is working for, and that is for their stomach and a few of their cadres while it burns on the ground,” he said.

Patel said young people feel disillusioned with party options and with the electoral process, “often pointing out they felt their vote would not make a difference”.