Battleground: Who will hold the Eastern Cape 30 years after Mandela’s election?

While the ANC’s support is on very shaky ground in most parts of the country, the party is likely to beat its opponents once more in the Eastern Cape in the upcoming general elections to regain control of its traditional heartland.

That is if the assessment of its performance over the past 10 years is anything to go by.

While the party’s support dropped sharply from 70.09% in the 2014 general elections to 53.9% in 11 August 2016 local government elections, it got on an upswing again, reaching nearly 70% in 1 November 2021 municipal elections.

ANC a dominant force in Eastern Cape

The ANC is so strong in the coastal province that it controls 37 of the 39 municipalities, with Buffalo City being the only metro in the country governed by the party.

The DA’s Kouga Local Municipality in Jeffery’s Bay is the only council not controlled by the ANC.

The ruling party is in a coalition government in Nelson Mandela Bay Metro with smaller parties.

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Out of 66 seats in the Eastern Cape legislature in the Bhisho capital, the party occupies 44.

The DA is the official opposition with 10 seats; EFF follows with five; UDM has two; ATM and Freedom Front Plus each have one seat.

The support for the ANC has been fluctuating over the past decade, but it remains steadily in control despite some of its municipalities providing poor service delivery.

Villagers keep ANC in power

At least one expert believes the major factor behind the party’s popularity in the province heavily relies on its struggle credentials.

Social commentators and analysts have for years charged that the Eastern Cape folks are loyal to the party partly because they want to protect the legacy of struggle heroes like Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, Govan Mbeki, Oliver Tambo, and Walter Sisulu, who all led the ANC and hail from the province.

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It is for this reason that the Eastern Cape is affectionately known as the home of legends, for being home to a string of impeccable freedom fighters.

Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, Steve Biko and Chris Hani, also hail from the province.

Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast, director at the Centre for Security, Peace, and Conflict Resolution unit at Nelson Mandela University, agrees the party will not lose power in the Eastern Cape and in at least four other provinces.

ANC to retain power in at least four provinces

“The ANC won’t lose power in Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, maybe in North West too.

It’s debatable in Free State because the province has Ace Magashula who left the ANC with some of the party’s support. It will lose in KZN, Western Cape and Gauteng,” said Breakfast.

In the Western Cape, the DA has been in control since 2009, while in KZN, the predictions are strong that the former President Jacob Zuma-led MK Party will harm the ANC in the elections.

Different polls have predicted a drop to below 35% for ANC support in Gauteng.

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Breakfast said the ANC, just like many liberation movements in the Southern African Development Community region, enjoys huge support in rural areas.

“The strength of the ANC lies not only in its dominance in the Eastern Cape, but the common denominator in post-colonial states is that the source of political power is always the rural faction of the population,” said Breakfast.

He said the Frelimo party in Mozambique, the ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe, and the SAWPO party in Namibia, much like the ANC in SA, have die-hard supporters in rural areas clinging to the good old memories of the movements.

“The legacy of liberation movements is found in the collection memory of people from rural areas. Die-hard supporters vote in line with party loyalty. They always remember that Mandela went to prison for them, and so on,” said Breakfast.

‘Paradox’

The ANC started losing power in 2016 in metropolitan urban areas. However, it maintains strength in rural areas.

“It’s a paradox because rural areas is where the ANC doesn’t deliver. Urban dwellers vote in relation to their exposure to the media and public policy issues; hence, the ANC doesn’t do well in cities,” Breakfast added.

In the 8 May 2019 general elections, the party received 68.74% in the province.

This was a slight drop-in support, as it obtained 70.09% of the vote in the 2014 general elections.

The party retained all its wards in recent by-elections, and its image received a major boost right on the edge of elections when the 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), published recently by Good Governance Africa, ranked three of its councils as some of the best run in the country.

The councils are Joe Gqabi District Municipality, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela Local Municipality, and Mnquma Local Municipality.

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