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The campaigning has mostly been done. It’s now up to the voter to decide where their X will be marked. After a weekend of last-gasp electioneering from the majority of the political parties before Wednesday’s general election, it seems Gauteng is up for grabs.
Political parties hoped to grow enough support in a hotly contested province to secure the largest slice of the pie in any coalition government formed at the provincial level. Gauteng was the focus over the weekend.
The ANC held a massive campaign bash at the FNB Stadium and the Inkatha Freedom Party convened a mini-rally in Dube Hostel, Soweto, while across the province Build One South Africa (Bosa), ActionSA and the Democratic Alliance (DA) also hosted gatherings.
Political analyst Professor André Duvenhage said the ANC was in the most difficult position in Gauteng.
“The province is going to be a huge challenge for the ANC,” he said.
“There’s no doubt there’s strong resistance and strong competition against the ANC. “There have been several challenges in Gauteng regarding water provision, electricity and so on, and people are dissatisfied. “I think the populist line of [premier] Panyaza Lesufi didn’t work in their favour.”
The ANC is vulnerable in Gauteng. During the 2019 elections, the party barely hung on with 50.19% of the vote, and the 2021 local elections continued its downward trajectory when it got 46%, and had to form coalitions in Joburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane.
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The emergence of new contenders places further pressure on the ANC in Gauteng, as newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party and Rise Mzansi have also made inroads into the province, recently, convening rallies in Orlando and Roodepoort last weekend.
While it appeared to be hotly contested, Duvenhage predicted the province would be dominated by the traditional major parties – the DA, Economic Freedom Fighters and ActionSA – while smaller parties such as Bosa and Rise Mzansi would have little to no impact.
“If there is an impact, it is likely to be very small, and even far less impact coming from individual candidates,” he said. “I believe it’s an environment that will be dominated by the major parties, with a mix of small parties, like the MK party and maybe ActionSA, whose support comes primarily from Gauteng, and to an extent the PA [Patriotic Alliance].
“Rise Mzansi and Bosa are frictions of percentages. I am reading them [at] 0.5% I don’t think they will make big inroads in Gauteng,” Duvenhage added.
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Political analyst Levy Ndou said coalitions likely to happen at the provincial level emphasised that the ruling party would not perform as badly as it did in the local government elections.
“The big thing we are seeing, which informs what we are saying, is that local government elections have made opposition parties feel they might be able to take over Gauteng because the metros are being run by coalitions.
“They see it is possible because of local government. They are now concentrating on provinces and it is not surprising,” he said.
“It’s important to understand that opposition parties have not taken over Gauteng through a popular vote, but through coalitions and have been able to galvanise support to ensure the ANC does not get 50% plus one.
“We see them there in Gauteng because they think it is possible to win,” Ndou explained. He said smaller parties could have impact with enough votes but this was unlikely.
“Parties formed as breakaways or ahead elections can make an impact, as we have seen with Cope and ActionSA. Their impact and influence “will depend on which coalition they go into and, importantly, who is participating in that coalition. That will determine whether they have impact or will be silent coalition partners,” he added.
The seventh elections are said to the most important since 1994, with polling indicating a dip in support for the ANC – potentially to below 45% for the first time.
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