Election battleground: ANC to lose its birthplace in the Free State? Magashule to ‘muddy the waters’?

The African National Congress (ANC) will hope to retain the province of Free State after this year’s elections

At least 70 political parties and 11 independent candidates will contest in the national and provincial elections.

However, only 24 to 45 contestants will appear on the provincial ballot on 29 May, according to the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC).

This ballot will allow voters to choose either a political party or an independent candidate to represent them in provincial legislatures.

Parties will be looking to challenge the ANC’s majority rule in the Free State province and aim to secure some seats in the legislature.

2019 elections

In the 2019 national and provincial elections, the ANC got 61.14% of the vote after 541 535 people voted for the ruling party in Free State.

This resulted in the ANC securing 19 seats out of the total 30 in the provincial legislature.

More than 155 000 voters supported the Democratic Alliance (DA), with the party getting 17.58% in the province.

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The votes translated into 6 seats for the DA.

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) received 11.60% (111 427 votes), resulting in four seats. Freedom Front Plus (FF+) only got one seat after getting an electoral support of 3.96 % (35 031 votes).

Other parties such as the African Transformation Movement (ATM), Patriotic Alliance (PA), the Congress of the People (Cope), and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) did not get any seats.

Battle for Free State

More than 1.4 million residents in the Free State have registered to vote in this year’s polls.

The ANC will aim to build on their 2021 local government election victory, where they secured 50.61% of the vote, despite a decline in support compared to the 2016 polls.

In the municipal elections, the governing party received the most votes in each of the Free State’s 19 municipalities and retained control of its birthplace, the Mangaung metro.

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While the Democratic Alliance (DA) has expressed it is confident of growing its electoral support to nine seats in the Free State legislature, there are some new parties on the block such as ActionSA and Rise Mzansi.

The uMkhonto WeSizwe (MK) Party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, and Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) have entered the political arena in the Free State.

Additionally, the African Content Movement (ACM), founded by former SABC COO Hlaudi Motsoeneng, aims to make an impact in the province.

Motsoeneng is originally from Phuthaditjhaba.

Coalition in Free State?

A poll conducted by Wits University and published in February this year found that the Free State had emerged as “a province of interest”.

A coalition government is likely to be formed in the Free State, but it would be led by the ANC rather than the opposition.

According to the poll, the ruling party is projected to drop to 42%, with Magashule “possibly muddying the waters”.

Last October, the ANC in Free State expelled 36 members for supporting ACT.

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