DA leader John Steenhuisen. Picture: Neil McCartney / The Citizen
Muslims across South Africa could punish the Democratic Alliance (DA) in the Western Cape and nationally at the national and provincial elections in May for the party’s stance on Israel’s war in Gaza.
This is according to North West University professor and political analyst Andre Duvenhage.
The DA’s stance on the Israel-Palestine issue has irked Muslims across the country following party leader John Steenhuisen’s comments about whether genocide was being committed by Israel in Gaza.
“One man’s genocide is another man’s freedom,” said Steenhuisen when asked about the military actions of Israel in Palestine.
Following Steenhuisen’s comments, some called for a fatwa (directive) to be issued that it is “absolutely haram” (not permissible) for Muslims to vote for the DA.
Steenhuisen’s comments were in stark contrast to South Africa’s government hauling Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing the country of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.
The DA also fired Ghaleb Cachalia from its shadow cabinet over a tweet regarding the conflict in the Middle East.
Cachalia shared a post on X, formally Twitter, about the ongoing conflict in Palestine. “I will not be silenced. Israel is committing genocide. Full bloody stop.”
ALSO READ: Steenhuisen axes Cachalia from shadow cabinet for views on Israel-Palestine conflict
Duvenhage said the Gaza conflict always produced two sides.
“At the moment, that whole situation is escalating probably to a regional conflict. Some even say it can become a world war.
“So, the problem with these types of cases, and the South African government is facing the same problem, is that it is difficult to be in a position where you try to be non-aligned. The conflict is escalating to the level forcing you to align on a certain point.
“When you align, you are going to pay a price like the government is going probably to lose the preferred situation on Agoa that is at the moment through the legislators,” Duvenhage said.
Duvenhage said the DA made its choice and the reaction to that choice can be seen in some voter surveys.
“The DA made a choice and that was a more pro-Israel stance and basically against the Gaza line, although they qualified it with certain perspectives about humanity and human rights and so on.
“But, I can see, and it’s reflected in the surveys, that the Democratic Alliance is not as strong as it was in the 2019 election in the Western Cape. Although Helen Zille and her team and some of the surveys, the Brenturst and one or two others, are supporting it arguing that the DA is still above 25%,” Duvenhage said.
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Duvenhage believes the DA’s support is waning.
“My own assessment is that their support base is a bit lower. It is around 21, 22 maybe 23% in that order. And there’s no doubt that a reaction from the Muslim community is going to impact negatively on the Democratic Alliance.”
He said the question now is what are the alternatives for Muslim voters?
“Is the ANC government or a Patriotic Alliance alternative a better alternative if you look at, for example, what happened in Knysna, what happened in Beaufort West and so on?
“So, I think it is easy for people to say ‘don’t vote DA as a result of this’. But if it touches your daily life in a very direct way, these issues may be more important than sensitive issues, but you must always respect the perspectives of the voters,” Duvenhage said.
Duvenhage added that the DA may also take a hit from Muslim voters nationally.
“We must take into consideration that the numbers, when it comes to the Muslim population, is relatively small in comparison to the bigger constituency or the bigger constituencies in South Africa. But yes, it’s going to have an impact and I believe it won’t be only limited to the Western Cape. It will affect probably Gauteng and maybe a few other areas.
“But I think we are talking here about percentage points. I do not see that this may have, let’s say a 5%, impact on the Democratic Alliance. It may change them from 23 percent to 22 or 21. That is more or less where I am reading the impact,” he said.
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Duvenhage added the Muslim community will also debate about who they should vote for.
“I think that you will also find that within the Muslim communities, there will be a debate and some of them will argue, ok, of all the evils, the DA may be the lesser evil, the better government… and some will vote on terms of performance.”
He said he also believes the negative sentiments towards the ANC and the EFF may be stronger than the negative sentiments towards the DA.
“The one is a religious issue, the other one is a governance issue. So it will all depend on how voters will prioritise their issues. But my honest take is that there will be Muslim people who will vote for good governance and say, ‘ok, we do not agree with the Democratic Alliance viewpoint about the Muslims and Gaza and Israel, but they are still the better of the evils’. But I am still of the belief that there will be a negative shift for the Democratic Alliance,” Duvenhage said.
The Citizen reached out to Steenhuisen for a response.
“There will be no comment,” the DA said.
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