DA has itself to blame for by-election flop, say political experts

With the Democratic Alliance (DA) having lost the most wards and only grabbing two of the ANC’s in this weeks by-elections, political analysts yesterday said voter apathy and switching of allegiances by DA traditional supporters stemmed from the political direction adopted by the party’s new leadership.

They warned the DA’s dismal performance would be a dress rehearsal of what could be expected in next year’s local government polls, if the party failed to go to the drawing board to address weaknesses.

Results released by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) on 95 wards contested, painted a picture of a party struggling to appeal to voters in almost all provinces – including its Western Cape stronghold.

• According to the IEC national overview, the:
• ANC retained 64, lost two and won six new wards;
• DA retained 14, lost nine and won two new wards; and
• Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) retained four and won one new ward.

Nelson Mandela University lecturer in political and conflict studies Ongama Mtimka said: “Part of the DA loss could be attributed to overreacting to respond to one constituency – ending up upsetting others.

“They are now facing real challenges everyone has been warning them about. Clearly, nonracialism only makes sense to the DA’s inner core, but what they are doing is driving a racial message, as far as constituencies are interpreting.

“Times of ignoring by-elections are gone, because they convey some of what is in the minds of the electorate – an emerging trend the DA has to worry about towards next year’s elections.”

Wits School of Governance visiting professor Susan Booysen said the results were dire for the DA and it meant going back to the drawing board.

“Party supporters boycott an election out of anger over things that have gone wrong, which may range from service delivery to unhappiness leadership developments,” she said.

“Voters have an axe to grind with the DA, which has translated into manna from heaven for the ANC – a sign of things to come for the party in next year’s local government elections.”

‘Quite tragic’

Independent political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga described the DA performance in the by-elections as “quite tragic”.

“The party needs to reflect very deeply on this election outcome. It has gone through serious troubles in the past few years in terms of leadership instability, showing that lack of coherence at national leadership level, is trickling down to ward level.

“Losses in the Western Cape – a traditional DA stronghold – also reflect an ideological war, not a service delivery,” said Mathekga.

“In these by-elections, the DA was supposed to be capitalising on the weaknesses of the ANC, especially on matters that have to do with corruption. You need to ask yourself whether there would be any other favourable circumstances for the DA to help it mobilise for more support for next year’s elections.”

DA national spokesperson Refiloe Nt’sekhe noted in a statement yesterday that the “DA has democratically mature voters who punish us where we have disappointed them through weak local councillors or perceived governance failures”.

She said the “Schweizer-Reneke debacle” continued to haunt the DA in the North West and the months of conflict with Patricia de Lille, which gave rise to the party known as Good, has “eaten into our support base” in certain Western Cape wards.

“The DA has learnt many lessons of its poor handling of these events, and it will take time for us to rebuild trust with the voters,” Nt’sekhe said.

However, we are very pleased that we retained the majority of our wards, showed growth in some of them and even won two new wards in a period when we are busy consolidating and stabilising internal systems and processes.

“Recent events have once again shown that South Africa must build the moderate nonracial centre and that the DA is the only party that can do so successfully.

– brians@citizen.co.za

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