Elections 2021: ‘Gripes may be taken to the streets, not ballot box’

Although a pre-election study conducted by Ipsos, the world’s third-largest market research company, predicted a third of South Africans will decide the outcome of the local government elections due to voter apathy, an expert believes the “vote where you registered” regulation will also contribute to a low turnout.

Political analyst Daniel Silke said it was understandable why a large number of South Africans were frustrated and fed up.

LIVE interactive map, latest news, multimedia and more!

View Map

“They have seen little results in their daily lives for many years, even having voted. They are discouraged with the choices available and the fact they intend to stay away is indicative of their lack of interest,” he said.

If South Africans did not vote it weakened the country’s democracy, he said.

“It takes away from the legitimate political process and people end up expressing their grievances not via the ballot box, but via protests, demonstrations or other forms of political expression.

“We have, perhaps, a very critical inflection point in this particular election, where if number of [ballots] drops significantly, this delegitimises the election process and can skew the results.”

ALSO READ: Coalitions are coming after the ANC’s broken municipalities

According to the Ipsos media release signed by its marketing manager, Mariska Pieterse, there were 42.6 million South Africans eligible to vote.

Of these, only 26.2 million (61.6%) were registered to vote.

“If we expect a countrywide medium voter turnout … about 14.6 million will draw their crosses,” Ipsos said.

“This figure represents only 34.3% of the total population eligible to vote. “Voter apathy will thus be a feature of this election, as it was in the last few elections.”

The study was undertaken between 9 and 14 October.

The release added in the algorithm used for the study: a low turnout would mean only 30% of registered voters turned out to vote; a medium turnout was 56% and a high voter turnout, 83%.