ANC’s last-ditch effort squeezes opposition vote – survey

The last-ditch campaigning by the ANC’s top brass seems to be paying off with a survey pegging the ruling party’s support at 44% – up from the steady 40% initial polling data showed.

Social Research Foundation (SFR) director Frans Cronje said data of the last 10 days showed the ANC clawing back a few percentage points, after the championing by former president Thabo Mbeki, former deputy presidents Kgalema Motlanthe and David Mabuza in recent weeks.

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Three weeks ago, the SRF was polling the ANC at 40%, but that has changed, Cronje said.

“The ANC campaign on the streets squeezes the opposition vote. Every day, it’s been winning back a third or half a percentage point. And if we project the trend line now, the party may end up getting pretty close to 50% support,” he said.

“Three or four months ago, it has pulled that ANC number close to 50% and even above 50% on more than one occasion.”

According to Cronje, this trend line was detrimental to the Democratic Alliance (DA), who has been shedding a fraction of a point. It also places the new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party at 10%.

“As we gear closer to elections, we see the DA dropping every two days, but the ANC lifting.

“The MK party started like a rocket taking off but it’s settling a little bit,” Cronje said.

“I’d give MK another week and see if it can hold the high levels it has had over the last three weeks.

“This is not a forecast, only a projection based on the trends in our current data. These trends can very easily change, so we are not saying this is what will happen, only what might happen.”

According to the SRF website, the baseline of the survey is 1 835 demographically and geographically representative registered voters.

Every day, 200 new participants are surveyed and the 200 oldest participants are removed from the survey. The interviews are telephonically conducted.

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Gareth van Onselen, CEO at Victory Research, said the ANC’s campaigning strategy is likely to make some small difference, but less than in the past.

“There is more electioneering to come though, including the ANC’s final rally, so it could climb a bit further, but for the moment it is hovering around 44%.”

Victory Research has run similar election tracking polls, measuring support daily.

“The last few weeks of any election is not about winning new supporters. Most people have made up their minds. It is about convincing undecided voters and to make all your voters make their cross on 29 May,” Van Onselen said.

“The number of undecided voters is relatively small but if you can get them onboard and get your voters to the polls, it can make two or three percent difference on the day.”

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Political analyst André Duvenhage said it was normal for the bigger parties to increase their majority closer to the elections.

“I will need to see the merit of the 45% because it is close to what happened in previous elections,” he said.

“There was a similar tendency of the ANC gaining support. They have been campaigning more intensively and it seems a lot can still happen before the poll date.”

But the ruling party was likely to lose its majority, he said.