Despite win, ANC’s decline evident in Mpumalanga, say analysts

Though the ANC may have won Mpumalanga with a 52% majority, its election victory is hollow because it continues on a downward trend – and it is because of its own failures, rather than the performance of opposition parties, according to political analysts.

The biggest surprise in the May general election in the province was the showing of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, which came second with 15.97%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) came third with 13.97% of the vote.

“I think the ANC has lost a lot even though they managed to win the elections in the province,” said independent political analyst, Goodenough Mashego.

“Former premier and now defunct deputy president David Mabuza left the party at 70%, but since his departure, it has been slowly losing direction. However, their win as well as their loss in terms of losing voters cannot be attributed to the rise of the MK or the falling of the EFF.”

People on the ground not happy with leadership

Mashego said the decline of the number of people who voted for the ruling party showed that the people on the ground were not happy with the leadership in terms of service delivery and other related issues.

He said the ANC was mostly voted for by the elderly who followed the party religiously, and social grant beneficiaries who were not sure if the new government would continue to issue the grants.

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On the rise of MK, Mashego said the party benefited from the poor campaign of the EFF president Julius Malema. “His position about the undocumented migrants was not clear,” he said.

“While South Africans were not happy with the illegal migrants, Malema was busy talking about the issue of opening borders for their fellow Africans. He did not state clearly what he meant and people fell out of love with his party, hence they decided not to vote for him.”

Much as he commended the MK, the analyst said the party only performed well in the Mpumalanga Highveld and the areas bordering KwaZulu-Natal.

MK mosted voted by Zulu people

He said the MK was mostly voted for by Zulu people and those feeling associated with them.

In Limpopo, the ANC obtained 74% of votes, in the Eastern Cape, they got 62%, in the North West 59%, Free State 53%, in the Northern Cape shared 49%, in Gauteng they received just 36%, and only 19.79% in the Western Cape.

Another political analyst and associate professor at North-West University, John Molepo, acknowledge the decline in ANC support over time.

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“There are many things contributing factors, but let us start with how the party feels,” he said.

“Remember they suspended a very influential senior leader, Mandla Msibi, just when the elections were around the corner. Previously, they fired Ngrayi Ngwenya, who is well known for his skills at garnering support for the ruling party.”

People not happy with ANC leadership

Molepo said MK was voted for by the people who were not happy with the leadership of the ANC.

He also did not rule out the fact that he believed that the MK was voted by the Zulu nation as it did well in the part of the province in which they are situated.

He said Jacob Zuma’s party served as a home for the ANC’s disgruntled followers.

ANC provincial spokesperson Ngelosi Ndlovu was not immediately available for comment.

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