ANC may lose 2-3% due to some list names – analyst

The ANC may lose 2-3% of votes in the upcoming elections if it insists on fielding objectionable parliamentary candidates on its lists.

Political analyst Professor Susan Booysen, research director at Johannesburg-based Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, said the ANC would be punished by voters.

She said the party’s failure to deal with members accused of unethical conduct had opened it up to an electoral backlash.

“There was clear confirmation from an interview conducted with Fikile Mbalula, ANC head of the elections, that these lists will not be changed before the polls on May 8.

“But for this the ANC will be punished by voters. I expect the ANC to fall by 2-3%. It could be pushed to as low as 55%. This list issue is important, it could push the ANC down,” Booysen added.

Factionalism was also working against the ANC. Voters were unsure if the Ramaphosa or Zuma camp would prevail in the end.

“There does not appear to be renewed trust under Ramaphosa, it’s blind trust in the hope he will prevail after the elections. The middle class is losing trust, they doubt Ramaphosa’s ability to improve the economy in the short term and this will feature at the elections.”

The Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) announced this week candidate lists could not be changed until after the election.

The IEC received 52 written objections against candidates from 10 political parties. All were rejected except one by the PAC against its own candidate.

IEC chairperson Glen Mashinini noted the commission could only act within the prescripts of the law and the constitution.

“The commission dismissed all other objections for failing to meet the constitutional and statutory criteria. The majority of these objections related to unproven allegations.”

The ANC topped the list with objections to 29 candidates, followed by Black First Land First with 19 objections, the Economic Freedom Fighters (13) and four each against candidates representing the Democratic Alliance and the Land Party.

There was an outcry about Nomvula Mokonyane, Mosebenzi Zwane, Bathabile Dlamini and Malusi Gigaba being on the ANC lists.

University of Pretoria professor Tinyiko Maluleka said the ANC could correct its lists after the elections by applying its policy on unethical conduct or it could state that based on the IEC’s decisions there was nothing it could do.

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