ANC, DA and IFP likely to form core coalition, says political analyst

With South Africa’s recent conclusion of the highly anticipated election, more anticipation looms over the country as the African National Congress (ANC) has to find a party to wed.

Political talks shake the nation as many try to guess and analyse which party the ANC will form a coalition with.

Many refer to this partnership as the Government of Unity, also known as the Government of National Unity (GNU).

ANC-DA-IFP coalition

In a move aimed at promoting national stability and reconciliation, the ANC, Democratic Alliance (DA), and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) are likely to form a coalition government, according to Theo Venter, Professor of Practice at the College of Business and Economics at the University of Johannesburg (UJ).

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“I think at least three parties in my view will form the essence of a coalition government. It would be the ANC naturally, it would be the DA and the IFP,” said Venter.

Venter said there’s a reason why one would incorporate the IFP in a coalition.

“The IFP is a very clear party with a regional base in KZN, and as we know KZN was a hot topic in this election so it’s good to bring them in. It’s good because they have expressed their interest in forming a coalition government and I think they fit very well into the national, ANC-DA model,” he said.

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The three parties may form the core of a coalition, with the possibility of other parties joining.

“You may now invite other groups that would be interested in forming that government such as the Freedom Front Plus or the ACDP. I would also think it’s possible to invite somebody like the Patriotic Alliance, because they make a very powerful showing among the colored population,” Venter added.

What is the GNU?

The GNU refers to a political arrangement in which different political parties or factions come together to form a coalition government. This is often done in times of crisis, transition, or to promote national stability and reconciliation.

In South Africa, the Government of National Unity was established in 1994 after the country’s first democratic elections, which marked the end of apartheid. The ANC, led by Nelson Mandela, formed a coalition government with the National Party (NP) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). This GNU aimed to promote national unity, rebuild the country, and address the social and economic inequalities created by apartheid.

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The key features of a GNU include:

1. Power sharing: Parties share cabinet positions, decision-making authority, and resources.
2. Consensus building: Parties work together to find common ground and make decisions through negotiation and compromise.
3. Cooperation: Parties put aside their differences to achieve common goals and priorities.

Speaking to The Citizen, Venter noted that a GNU can take two forms: one where parties choose to work together despite having a majority, or one where parties are forced to work together due to no single party having a majority.

“The one source is like the government of national unity South Africa had from 1994 to 1996 where political parties decide to work together despite the fact that one of the political parties can be government on its own. So there’s very specific choice that the parties make, let’s say in the national interest or for the purposes of political transition that they work together.

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“A second form is where political parties are forced to work together because none of them have the majority to rule at a national level. That is where South Africa is a the moment. A situation where the ruling party the ANC is looking for partners to form a government,” said Venter.

Pros and cons of a coalition

Venter acknowledges that a coalition government will come with both negatives and positives.

The benefits of a coalition government include compromise and accommodation among parties, leading to more moderate policies.

“The benefits of a coalition is that you have political parties that are typically ideologically different but they are working together. None of these participants of the political parties can implement their policies or their ideologies exactly the way they wanted to. They will have to make compromises to get to a position where they can form a government and govern. That means some of the contentious policies in the country they are moved aside so as to accommodate the other side and that’s one of the biggest benefits,” he said.

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However, Venter said the cons of a GNU is that it slows down decision making.

“You have to negotiate almost everything.

“And you have to negotiate it very clearly before you can make a decision and that sometimes takes a lot of time,” he added.

GNU’s areas of contention

According to Venter, the unity government may impact the country’s international relations and global standing.

“At the moment, our current policy is not accepted all over the world, such as our position in relation to Palestine,” he said.

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Opposition parties vs ANC

With a new government in place, opposition parties are likely to hold the unity government accountable, while also wanting to ensure oversight as well as transparency, especially with a now competitive party system.

Venter says no single party can whitewash or bully political parties into decisions.

“I think the opposition parties will at every opportunity go for a motion of no confidence and things like that. We will see a lot of activity on the legislature as these things progress.

“Therefore, coalition governments will have to think very clearly about what they’re going to do and how they are going to do it before they go parliament due to the fact that a motion of no confidence is waiting for them at every corner of decision making,” added Venter.

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Critical coalition areas

Furthermore, Venter says the ANC, DA, and IFP should focus on critical areas such as job creation, economic growth, stability, infrastructure development, and addressing load shedding. He says the parties will engage in discussions on the legalities and implementation of their manifestos.

“All political parties detail in their manifestos how they will deal with issues such as unemployment, economic growth and unemployment, some more than others. But I think the most important areas would be job creation, economic growth, stability in the South African economy, getting our infrastructure sorted out and especially load shedding, our harbours and railways.”

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