ANC, DA leading the line, but huge drops projected as vote count continues

Two of South Africa’s biggest political parties – the ANC and the DA – are set to suffer a significant blow in the 2021 local government elections as votes continue to be counted.

2021 vs 2016

According to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), both parties will see huge drops in support nationally despite being the frontrunners as of 3pm on Tuesday.

The ANC is in the lead with 46.97%, the DA has 22.97%, while the remaining 9.68% is shared by other parties.

However, the CSIR has projected the ANC might score 46.7% of the vote, a decrease in comparison to the 54.5% the party achieved in the 2016 municipal elections.

ALSO READ: Local election results and voter statistics: 2021 versus 2016

For the DA, the council predicted that the party may decline from the 27% it achieved five years ago to 22.6% this year. 

The Economic Freedom Fighters, meanwhile, will see a tick up in support from 8.2% in 2016 to 10.6% this year.

Coalitions in the pipeline?

Despite the increased number of participants in this year’s election, some see the race as still being between the ANC, which dominates the National Assembly and runs the country, and the two big opposition parties, the DA and the EFF.

But a counter view is that the political landscape has widened, thus expanding the competition beyond the three major parties.

READ MORE: Coalitions are coming after the ANC’s broken municipalities

With so many political parties and independent candidates having contested these elections, the prospect of coalitions in certain municipalities may be a reality that cannot be ignored as the projected numbers indicate that coalitions are a virtual certainty.

While it is true that the ANC, DA and EFF enjoy more support compared to the other parties, there is a possibility that smaller parties could gang up against the big three to run some municipalities.

Coalition governments have been bashed for ringing in further chaos at major metros and municipalities with constant floor-crossing and power battles delaying proper service delivery.

Elections result count

Meanwhile, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has indicated that 90% of the election results will be completed by Tuesday evening.

Speaking at a media briefing at the IEC’s results operations centre in Tshwane, the electoral body’s chief electoral officer Sy Mamabolo said the balance of 10% would take another 24 hours to complete.

This mean that the commission was on course to announce the final results on Thursday.

“We want to finalise as many results as we can by early [Tuesday] evening and we estimate that we should be in a position to do approximately 90%, and the balance tomorrow [Wednesday].

“All things equal, the commission will probably declare the final results on Thursday,” Mamabolo said.

Follow the 2021 local government election results live here.

IEC says they’re not to blame for low voter turnout

Additional reporting by Thapelo Lekabe and The Conversation