ANC’s electoral fortunes may hinge on women’s faith in Ramaphosa – study

A new research brief shows that women voters may stick with the ANC in this year’s local government elections, thanks to their faith in Cyril Ramaphosa.

The brief, titled Does gender matter in voter preferences in the local government elections in 2021? by the Centre for Social Development in Africa (CSDA) at the University of Johannesburg, examined if gender influences voter preferences.

The study was authored by the South African research chair in welfare and social development at the CSDA, Professor Leila Patel, professor emeritus in politics at University of Johannesburg (UJ), Professor Yolanda Sadie, CSDA researcher Matshidiso Sello, research associate Megan Bryer and UJ statistician Jaclyn de Klerk.

South Africa has 2.7 million more women than men registered to vote in the upcoming polls on Monday, 1 November.

That’s a difference of 11% and reflects a trend first identified in 2006, which suggests that women have a stronger commitment and intention to vote than men.

The data was collected from a random, nationally representative sample, with face-to-face interviews conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs (a market research company), on behalf of the CSDA.

Voter preferences under Zuma and Ramaphosa

Four nationally representative cross-sectional surveys examined voter preferences between 2017 and 2020 under both former president Jacob Zuma and President Cyril Ramaphosa.

During the fourth wave, researchers posed specific questions about voter preferences and reasons for choosing a particular party in the 2021 local government elections.

A total of 3,469 people took part in the survey. Of the total study population, 48% are male, and 52% are female. The data was weighted to represent the national population.

Slightly more women than men indicated that they would vote for the ANC.

“This represents an important trend that’s been noted across the four waves: the role of party leadership in driving women’s decision-making,” said the authors.

In the first survey, in 2017, women indicated “significant disillusionment with the ANC and in particular with president Zuma and shifted their support away from the ANC to opposition parties”.

This scenario changed in the second and subsequent surveys from 2018.

“Women’s support for the ANC was reignited because of president Ramaphosa. This support seems to have held firm in the fourth wave of data,” said the authors.

These findings over four data waves also indicate that women are less tied to party loyalty than men.

“The shift in support for the ANC based on whether Zuma or Ramaphosa as its leader may suggest that women seem less likely to hold a strong enduring loyalty,” the authors said.

Patel said the fact that more women than men are registered voters “augurs well for South Africa’s democracy and for the achievement of a more gender-equal society”.

She pointed out that women make up more than half the country’s population.

Will the gender differences play out at the polls?

• At least 25% of men choose to vote for a party because they liked the leader of the party. Where as only 20 % of women based their choice on the party’s leadership.
• Party choices among both genders depended on trust in the president, trust in the party, support for the party that brought freedom and democracy, and fear of loss of a social grant if one voted for an opposition party.
• Those who valued their democratic rights as a reason for party choice were more likely to vote for an opposition party.
• 27% of respondents considered service delivery issues when voting and thought their party of choice was addressing corruption decisively. These showed no gender differences.
• 6% indicated they are more likely to vote for a councillor of a different party in the local elections. Of this group, slightly more women were uncertain than men. The main reasons were related to efficiency, trust in the party of choice, that the councillor is not corrupt and that the councillor listens and is responsive.
• Fewer women than men indicated they feared their social grants would be stopped if they voted for an opposition party.
• Job creation also influenced voting choices. Those who did not believe the ANC would stimulate job creation had lower odds of voting for the ANC (28% or 1.28 times less likely) – and they were more likely to choose an opposition party. Younger women and men were more likely to vote for an opposition party.

The research authors called this a “significant finding” that could influence the election results because of South Africa’s extraordinarily high unemployment rates.

Compiled by Narissa Subramoney