Al Jama-ah, Cope and AIC expected to underperform – political analyst

The Congress of the People (Cope), African Independent Congress (AIC) and Al Jama-ah are among several parties that are expected to underperform in this year’s elections.

Parties that might not survive

According to pollical analyst Sipho Seepe, the infighting in Cope and poor campaign work on the ground was the reason he thinks Mosiuoa Lekota’s party might not return to the National Assembly.

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He said the AIC had also lost its strength and could also find itself out of the national political space.

“Cope is obvious, [it] will not do well. The AIC, I do not think they have a chance of coming back. Those two, I see them coming in as very weak,” he said.

In terms of Al Jama-ah, which currently has one seat in the National Assembly, Seepe said it was not a strong contender despite using its mayoral seat in Johannesburg to campaign for votes.

Al Jama-ah member Kabelo Gwamanda is the current Joburg mayor.

“I do not think that grouping will do well nationally, I do not think they will do better in this election. They were thrust as a compromise into the position they have in Joburg,” he said.

According to Seepe, Al Jama-ah has failed to use its position in Johannesburg to demonstrate competence and leadership.

“The mayor of Johannesburg is an absent mayor,” he said.

Seepe said he believed that the Patriotic Alliance (PA) would do better than the GOOD party. The two parties are competing for the coloured vote.

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“GOOD has been absent. If you look at what the PA has done with [leader Gayton] McKenzie, he has been in the public space. I think [GOOD] will be one of those that is faced with non-representation at national level,” he said.

Seepe said he believed that the United Democratic Movement (UDM) would continue to have a presence in provinces such as the Eastern Cape.

“UDM will resort to probably a provincial base but Holomisa stands to run for premiership. But they will not do that well,” he said.