Seven provinces will not be able to afford education budgets in 2028, says Gwarube

Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube has projected that seven provinces will not be able to afford their budgets in the 2027/28 financial year.

This is due to budget pressures being experienced by the department, with provinces now scrambling to make it work by cutting some programmes to save others.

In the Western Cape, the department has decided to reduce the basket of teaching posts for 2025. This will result in fewer teachers in classrooms, while pupils increase.

ALSO READ: SAHRC to go to Parliament over education’s budget cuts

Over the last five years, the number of pupils has increased by approximately 292,820 nationally.

Other provinces are working to avoid cutting budgets for key services like textbooks, admin support and scholar transport programmes.

“These budget pressures are not just numbers on a spreadsheet,” said Gwarube in a media briefing on the impact of budget cuts in the sector on Wednesday.

“They translate into fewer teachers, reduced textbooks, and fewer admin support staff, which means teachers spend more time on admin work, thereby reducing learning and teaching time. In essence, the very fabric of our children’s future is under threat.”

Education budget pressure long time in making

According to Gwarube, these budget pressures have been years in the making.

This is due to aggressive budget cuts, economic stagnation and fiscal mismanagement across government which is now set to impact schools.

“To fully grasp why we are here and more importantly how we got here, we must look back and acknowledge that as government, we have not made the right choices at the right time – which has brought us to this point,” said Gwarube.

ALSO READ: Western Cape forced to cut over 2 000 teacher posts due to budget shortfall

These choices include state-owned enterprise bailouts, wasteful expenditure and corruption.

“We are faced with a pending national crisis, one that affects not just our pupils but our teachers, principals, and broader communities. It is crucial to understand that this crisis is not confined to one province or one aspect of the education sector,” she said.

“Every province is grappling with these painful choices.”

The next four years

According to Gwarube, provincial education departments will find it increasingly difficult to fund their existing basket of posts and existing programmes within the available budget in the next two to three years.

She called for measures to be taken proactively to mitigate the risk.

In the 2025/26 financial year, four provincial departments will battle to cover their budgets, while in the 2026/27 financial year, five provinces will battle to cover their budgets, she said.

ALSO READ: Ramaphosa signs Bela Bill but puts two contentious clauses on hold

Seven provinces will not be able to afford their budgets in the 2027/28 financial year.

To mitigate some of the risks, some provinces have preserved the same post-basket for the past three academic years. While no teacher got retrenched, vacancies have not been filled.

“The numbers are staggering. If we continue down this path, projections indicate that most provincial education departments will not be able to maintain their respective basket of posts,” said Gwarube.

Meetings with finance minister

Gwarube has met with education Members of the Executive Council (MECs) from across the country in response to the potential crisis.

“We conducted a thorough analysis of the budget challenges in each province. MECs from every province have compiled provisional provincial reports with sobering results.

“For the first time in a decade, we now have a clearer picture of where the most significant budget pressures lie and how we need to engage treasury in a bid to address the challenges we see.”

She has also requested an urgent meeting with the Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana, provincial MECs for finance and the nine MECs of Education.

ALSO READ: School services in jeopardy as Gauteng education seeks to save teaching jobs

“We must work together with all 10 treasuries to unlock additional funds to alleviate the pressures facing the education sector, even if it is for the short term, and to prevent further cuts to teaching posts and critical support services like school nutrition and transport.

“We are also appreciative of Treasury’s willingness to engage with the Education sector. Ultimately a solution must be found in order for us to protect front-line services.”