Matric results: Which provinces are on an upward trajectory?

Matrics will be on the edge of their seats awaiting their individual results, but administrators will have their eyes on the provincial tallies.  

The national pass rate has increased for three consecutive years, peaking last year at 82.9% — the highest matric pass rate ever recorded for the National Senior Certificate (NSC).

There will be several provinces looking to beat their personal bests, with others looking to maintain their regional dominance.

Provincial expectations

In addition to being a marker for overall academic output, the provincial figures are a source of bragging rights for administrators.

The Free State has occupied the top spot for the last three years, followed closely by Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

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The Northern Cape will want to lift itself off the bottom, having registered the lowest pass rate in three of the last five years.

Others will be aiming to return to pre-covid figures, such as the North West which went from 86.8% in 2019 to 76.8% in 2020, before gradually recovering to 81.6% by 2023.

Consistent provinces

The Free State will be hoping to extend its dominance by becoming the first province to break the 90% threshold, having come close in 2023 with 89.3%

Gauteng has maintained an 80%-and-above pass rate for the last five years, as have the Western Cape and KZN, barring the 2020 Covid-19 slump experienced by all provinces.

The Class of 2024 had just begun their high school careers when teaching was disrupted by the pandemic, and Minister of Basic Education Siviwe Gwarube praised their resilience.

“Some of you had to adapt to online learning and deal with limited resources. Navigating a world where learning and teaching became incredibly difficult was no small feat,” said Gwarube on Monday.

Strong improvements

Limpopo has seen the biggest improvement since 2020, jumping 12.8% in the last two years.

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The northernmost province suffered the most in the wake of the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, registering 68.1% and 66.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

The Northern Cape and Limpopo will both be hoping to break the 80% threshold for the first time, and they are the only provinces not to have registered provincial distinctions so far.

Each of the nine provinces improved in some way between 2022 and 2023, and fingers will be crossed for the upward swing to continue.

Between 2019 and 2023, the provinces have averaged:

• Free State: 87.4%
• Gauteng: 84.76%
• Western Cape: 81.26%
• KwaZulu Natal: 81.02%
• North West: 80.52%
• Mpumalanga: 76.18%
• Eastern Cape: 75.26%
• Northern Cape: 72.78%
• Limpopo: 71.94%

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