‘Dying’ ANC is at the crossroads

A do or die moment for the ANC, the tripartite alliance and the country looms this weekend as more leaders are expected to call for President Jacob Zuma’s head.

Amid some of the most serious ructions yet within the tripartite alliance, the ANC is holding its national executive committee (NEC) meeting, starting tomorrow and continuing to Sunday.

Political analyst Elvis Masoga said some leaders are likely to push for a debate on Zuma’s future to be on the agenda.

“They will probably want a discussion on an alternative exit plan for Zuma to be on the table.”

He said there was a possibility the debate would centre on whether the ANC should put the country or Zuma first.

The ANC has now realised it is slowly dying, he added.

“Will the current leadership save the ANC from its looming political death, is just one of the many questions on many people’s lips,” he said.

There were extraordinary displays of infighting this week as the ANC issued an official statement on Tuesday accusing its own minister, Lynne Brown, of committing perjury, along with the Eskom board, in putting forward bizarre and conflicting accounts of the reappointment to the power utility of its CEO, Brian Molefe. Brown, Molefe and the Eskom board have been accused of doing the bidding of Zuma.

Former minister Pravin Gordhan, in an outspoken attack in parliament, suggested they were part of the “state capture” problem.

Another political analyst, professor Andre Duvenhage, said while the tide continued to turn against Zuma, it did not mean his leadership would abruptly end, as he still has the support of about 60% of the NEC.

“If a motion against Zuma is passed this weekend, this could see the ruling ANC disintegrate, but it is highly unlikely that he will be axed, because the priority of a united ANC is at the moment far more important than getting rid of Zuma.

“The ANC finds itself in a catch-22 situation, but also the longer they keep Zuma, the higher the price they will pay in the long run, because stronger action against Zuma should have long been taken,” said Duvenhage.

Wits School of Governance professor Susan Booysen said there was a groundswell against Zuma within the ANC.

“But at what point it will reach a tipping point is unclear.

“It is very difficult to predict, but the ANC came close to that point last year,” Booysen said.

The NEC gathering this weekend comes just days after one of the tripartite alliance partners, trade union federation the Congress of SA Trade Unions announced this week that Zuma had been banned from addressing or attending their events.

Booysen said the anger against Brown and Molefe should be seen against the background of this anti-Zuma groundswell within the ruling party.

“I would expect Brian to burst into tears again anytime,” Booysen said jokingly.

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