Cyril’s late start in ANC succession race could cost him dearly – analysts

Nobody knows for sure who is going to win the ANC presidential race between Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma because the outcome will be determined by the ANC branches, political analyst Steven Friedman says.

“ANC presidents are not chosen by the public, but by ANC branch members.

“Whether they make public speeches is irrelevant, what matters is who wins support from the branches,” Friedman said.

He was reacting to Ramaphosa’s late start to campaigning at the weekend, when he lambasted corruption and state capture at an ANC gathering in Uitenhage in the Eastern Cape.

Friedman, one of five political analysts canvassed in a Rand Merchant Bank survey that indicated Dlamini-Zuma would probably win the race, said his answer to the survey was based on his gut feeling.

“I was asked to express an opinion based on my gut feel, but I did not claim to know who was winning,” he said.

The analyst said the percentage he placed on each of the various options given in the RMB survey was tentative.

“Also in the RMB survey, I gave the highest probability to an inconclusive result, so I was hardly sticking my neck out on either candidate,” he added.

“We will know when ANC branch nominations start appearing how strong the candidates are.

“Until then, it is foolish to claim to know who is winning,” Friedman said.

Several analysts said Ramaphosa’s late start in the ANC presidential campaign could cost him dearly at the elective conference in December.

Dlamini-Zuma, on the other hand, started campaigning even before she finished her job as African Union Commission chairperson.

Over the Easter weekend, Ramaphosa received a boost when he was endorsed by the St Engenas Zionist Christian Church.

The church, which doesn’t make a habit of inviting politicians to its services, made an exception for Ramaphosa.

Its head bishop, Joseph Engenas Lekganyane, assured  Ramaphosa that he was always welcome at the church.

The Supreme Court of Appeals is still to determine whether President Jacob Zuma’s 783 corruption, money-laundering and fraud charges should be reinstated in line with an earlier North Gauteng High Court ruling.

The Constitutional Court earlier ruled that Zuma must pay the costs of nonsecurity upgrades to his privately owned, rural Nkandla homestead, which was upgraded at a cost of R246 million to the taxpayers.

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