Covid infection rate: Too many not complying

Despite earlier hopes of South Africa moving out of the Covid third wave, infection statistics stubbornly refuse to come down thanks to people’s refusal to wear masks, sanitise and isolate, lower than expected vaccination rates and the effects of recent “super-spreader events”, including the unrest.

Infections rates are set to increase in the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), with Gauteng having reached its peak and the positivity rate pointing to numbers steadily going down to 20% in the country’s most populous province.

While the National Institute for Communicable Diseases over the weekend reported 13 021 new Covid cases – bringing the number of laboratory-confirmed cases to 2 595 447 – leading experts yesterday warned that case figures could soar.

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Among factors, they cited for the increase in infection numbers, included:

• A difference in the provincial rate of the peak between Gauteng, West-ern Cape and other provinces
• Non-adherence to non-pharmacological interventions;
• South Africa not having yet inoculated a sizable number of people, with some not fully vaccinated.

• The recent riots, which saw large numbers of people looting shops and factories.

Professor Shabir Madhi, executive director of the Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics research unit at Wits University, said infection numbers increased because of a difference in the rate of the peak between Gauteng, Western Cape and other provinces.

Madhi explained: “In Gauteng, where the 25% of the country’s population live, we have seen numbers steadily going down and the positivity rate, which is an important measure. It is now under 20% – a contrast compared to other provinces, particularly Kwa-Zulu-Natal.“

The South Africa experience with the past two waves has demonstrated that they normally run their course – a certain percentage of the population has to be infected before there is a downward trend in the wave.“In this particular wave, com-ing to alert level 4 has resulted in some measure of interruption in the virus resurgence.“What was predictable was that once we got to lower levels of lockdown restrictions, provinces not yet infected would see a rebound, which is what we have seen in the Western Cape, in KZN and in one or two other provinces.“

Numbers hovering above13 000 do not come as a surprise. “The real numbers are much greater than that, considering under-estimating of people infected because of the rate of testing. “In Gauteng, the positivity rate is coming down to under 20%, while in other provinces it is still above 30% and 40%, meaning that those provinces are still far away when it comes to reduction in the number of infections occurring at the level of community.”

Asked about the World Health Organisation’s determination marking the end of a wave, he said that once that figure goes below 5% it is considered the worst of the wave is passed.

Wits University associate professor and healthcare management expert, Alex van den Heever, blamed the spike in KZN infection numbers on the recent riots. “KZN was in decline until the riots emerged.

It looks as though they will now have a severe third wave.“The concern is that Gauteng may experience some knock-on effects from KZN.” Said professor Heather Zar of the University of Cape Town’s department of paediatrics and child health at the Red Cross Children’s Hospital: “The soaring of numbers reflects the impact of the delta variant, which is highly transmissible.

“It also reflects on people not adhering to the non-pharmaco-logical interventions as strongly as they should – particularly in the adolescent group, where we have seen more infections.“It also reflects that we still have a huge unvaccinated population and we should wrap up vaccinations as fast as possible.”– brians@citizen.co.za