Covid-19 deaths could overtake those of SA’s 3 biggest killers

Projections are pointing to Covid-19 deaths overtaking those of South Africa’s biggest three killers: tuberculosis (TB), diabetes and cerebrovascular diseases, and murders.

International website covid19-projections.com, which has been accurate so far on its projections of the numbers in South Africa, estimates that total deaths will hit 33,000 by 1 October. The death toll stood at 1,652 on Wednesday.

Local actuaries have made various predictions about the Covid-19 numbers, which were initially projected at 375,000 deaths, but were quickly revised down to 40,000.

If the 33,000 death toll is reached, then a full-year Covid-19 death toll may be more than the combined annual number of murders and deaths in road accidents.

However, Pandemic Data & Analysis (Panda) group believes the toll will be much lower, at 11,000.

A member of the group, Piet Streicher, said this week the infection would reach its peak in the Western Cape between 23 June and 5 July before tapering off. Other provinces would be affected later, although Streicher said there was reason to believed infections rates might be lower in other provinces.

According to Statistics South Africa, out of 446,544 people who died in South Africa in 2017, 39,380 (or 86%) died of natural causes and that of these, 28,687 (6.4%) died of TB and 25,336 (5.7%) of diabetes mellitus.

According to the 2018-2019 crime stats, 21,022 people were killed, making for about 58 people murdered every day while there were 1,390 fatal car crashes in 2019-2020.

With TB said to kill more than 160 people daily in SA and 58 murders per day, Covid-19 could surpass the country’s biggest killers.

To gauge the impact of HIV or active TB patients on Covid-19, scientists working in Western Cape Province have analysed outcomes for 12,987 patients and after adjusting for other risk factors, they found HIV increased the risk dying from Covid-19 by a factor of 2.75, and active TB by a factor of 2.58.

“In essence, if we still don’t know to a large extent the number of infected, for example in SA, at present, then it is difficult to quantify in comparison to other top causes of mortality such as HIV or TB,” said Dr Shakira Choonara, an independent public health expert.

Choonara said it was reassuring that SA was seeing a larger number of recoveries, as was the worldwide trend.

“But it will depend on our health system readiness, targeted testing and reducing the spread of infection,” she said.

But divisional director at Ezintsha, faculty of health sciences at Wits University, Professor Francois Venter, said Covid-19 was likely to be the biggest diseases killer this year.

“Yes, lots of other stuff kills South Africans and should have been actioned ages ago. But these silly comparisons mask the fact that all these can be tackled, often within existing resources,” Venter said.

He said it was easy to continue to screen and treat for diabetes, TB and HIV while wearing masks and washing hands, adding that “we don’t need falsely polarising debates”.

Head of the biomedical sciences department at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology Dr Glenda Davison said TB and HIV patients must continue to take medication and go for treatment as after Covid-19 was over, SA may see a resurgence of these other disorders.

– siphom@citizen.co.za

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