ANC taking a ‘reckless gamble’ by backing Dlamini-Zuma, says analyst

The ANC is taking a “reckless political gamble” by fielding Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as one of its presidential candidates, because she is associated with President Jacob Zuma, whom the electorate may not want.

This is according to political analyst Professor Susan Booysen, who said Dlamini-Zuma’s utterances during her current undeclared campaigning had proved clearly that she was not independent of her former husband and her political fortunes were dependent on him.

Booysen’s critique came as Zuma faced multipronged pressure to step down. A new, damning survey shows the ANC might lose power in the 2019 election if Dlamini-Zuma became the next ANC president.

The survey, Political Views in a post Downgrade, post Gordhan SA, was conducted by South African Global Markets on behalf of Rand Mechant Bank.

“Dlamini-Zuma is proving that she is not her own candidate, but a puppet of Jacob Zuma. In her career, she is leveraging off Zuma, who unfortunately is not highly regarded by the electorate. Any candidate who is associated with Zuma would make the ANC lose in the election. It is a reckless political gamble for the ANC to push for Dlamini-Zuma,” Booysen said.

Mabine Seabe, spokesperson for DA leader Mmusi Maimane, said the survey reflected reality and that the DA was ready to take over from the ANC in 2019, as the ruling party had lost legitimacy among the electorate.

“A change in ANC leadership doesn’t change the fact that the ANC is corrupt, and people are waking up to the reality that their future does not lie with the ANC,” Seabe said.

But ANC spokesperson Khusela Sangoni dismissed the survey as “adding to the cacophony of noise” that is already in existence around the ANC.

The report canvassed leading political analysts Prince Mashele, Anthony Butler, Steven Friedman, Stephen Grootes and Ralph Mathekga for their views.

The analysts concurred on a high probability that the ANC would lose the 2019 national election if Dlamini-Zuma were elected ANC president at the party’s December elective conference.

At 31%, the survey put a high probability that Zuma would be removed from office this year.

“Various analysts noted that if Zuma remains in office and is followed by Dlamini-Zuma as party president, then the odds switch to the ANC losing the 2019 general election,” it says.

The survey paints a scenario of an adverse political environment that will run until 2019.

“The market may be underpricing the probability that Zuma gets forced from office in the next few months.”

The ANC’s Sangoni said any ANC elective conference would generate public interest as the party was the leader of society.

“Those are individual views by those analysts. It is not the first time they prophesy doom and gloom about the ANC. Prince Mashele has been doing this for long,” she said.

“The ANC is united as we go to our national elective conference in December and nothing would divert our attention from that,” Sangoni said.

Seabe said the ANC was no longer about the people, but about Zuma and his cronies.

“The ANC is no longer talking about the people of South Africa, but about itself. It is a party of Jacob Zuma and his corrupt cronies,” Seabe said.

He said the DA was refining policies that would ensure the party would take over government in 2019.

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