ANC on its knees to Mbeki

The ANC’s desperation for votes has forced the party to humble itself before former president Thabo Mbeki because he has integrity and the respect of the country and the party is hoping his image will help it triumph at the polls, an expert says.

The ANC, which had been in power since 1994, with Nelson Mandela as the first democratically elected black president, is expected to dramatically lose electoral support in the 2024 national general elections.

The majority of political analysts believed the party would lose its parliamentary majority, while others said it would be lucky to get over 50%.

Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast, the director of the centre for security, peace and conflict resolution at Nelson Mandela University, said Luthuli House wanted to use Mbeki’s current popularity to counter former president Jacob Zuma’s political influence.

Zuma, although still an ANC member, has decided not to vote for the ANC but to campaign and vote for the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party.

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Mbeki has a lot of support

Breakfast said Mbeki has a lot of support – locally and internationally. “He is respected and is one of the leaders that, when he speaks, people listen.

“He is not respected only among a particular section of the population but he is respected also among the white people.”

Breakfast said there had not been a scandal during Mbeki’s tenure, unlike President Cyril Ramaphosa with the Phala Phala debacle and Zuma’s corruption allegations.

He was never accused of corruption and even when some tried to link him to the arms deal it did not stick.

“The ANC wants to counter Zuma because he has credible support and that has caused a panic within the party.

“MK and the ANC are contesting for the same support base, which is the broader black population. “Mbeki’s inclusion is part of their strategy to counter Zuma and the MK party,” Breakfast said.

Similarly, in an apparent move to undermine Zuma’s influence in KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC had roped in corruption-accused former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede to lead its election campaign in eThekwini.

Both secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and ANC Women’s League president Sisisi Tolashe cited Gumede’s popularity and campaigning skills for her return, despite being on step-aside. But this was not the case with former ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, who was not allowed to perform any ANC activity while on step-aside.

Magashule claimed his suspension was a political ploy to prevent him from contesting Ramaphosa for the ANC presidency.

Magashule was unable to contest in the 2022 ANC national conference as he had planned.

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According to Breakfast, Mbeki was unlikely to agree to suggestions by some that he should return as president.

He said Mbeki would prefer to advise the party from the sidelines. University of South Africa’s prof Dirk Kotzé said since Mandela’s death, Mbeki remained the only personification of the ANC’s good side and the period when the party was doing well.

By embracing Mbeki again, they were saying the party should not only be judged on its current failures but on its good history in government under Mbeki.

“The time of president Mbeki was one of the best times with very high growth rates, less corruption than now and in general there was a good feeling,” Kotzé said.

Under Mbeki, with a voter turnout of 76%, the ANC in 2004 achieved a 69.69% electoral victor – way above the much-needed two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution.

He outperformed even Mandela, who got 62.6% in 1994, Zuma who received 65.9% in 2009 and 62.1% in 2014. Ramaphosa’s performance at the 2019 polls was 57.5 % and this is expected to drop dramatically – even to an ANC defeat in this year’s elections.

The Free-Market Foundation said during Mbeki’s presidency, average annualised quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was 4.2%, and average annual inflation was 5.7%.

The World Bank’s Africa’s Pulse report showed economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is set to decelerate from 3.6% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2023 and SA’s growth had been stagnant.

In the medium-term budget policy statement for 2023, National Treasury projected economic growth would go from 1.9% in 2022, to 0.8% in 2023. GDP growth is forecast to average 1.4% over 2024–2026. This is far from the Mbeki-era growth levels.

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