2022 ‘strike season’ may have nothing on next year, says expert

Despite intense industrial action anticipated in various sectors of the economy this season, should there be a breakdown in wage negotiations, economist Mike Schussler has predicted “a normal strike year” – not as severe as in previous years.

Unions have begun to push for higher wage increases in the mining and public sectors. Against a background of the mining industry having seen a remarkable increase in earnings – buoyed by high international commodity prices – Schussler yesterday downplayed a threat of massive strikes, ignited by a standoff between unions and Sibanye Gold during wage negotiations.

The National Union of Mineworkers, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union and Solidarity are presenting a united front.

“Most unions are unlikely to go on a full-blown strike, because they know that the economy is weak after the Covid pandemic,” said Schussler.

“While this year is set to be a normal strike year, next year might be different, because that is when people will feel the most impact of a high inflation rate.”

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He described the tensions at Sibanye as “an exception” because workers in the mining industry “generally got good increases” due to the strengthening of commodity prices.

In painting a bleak economic future outlook, University of Johannesburg economics associate professor Peter Baur said a global inflation of over five percent has come a shock to most people

“Spurred by the Ukrainian crisis, energy prices and the price of commodities, such as food, has seen a huge increase.

“With South African growth still low, radical steps to curtail future inflation will cause the SA Reserve Bank to consider an increase in interest rates, making it more difficult for internal investment, given the low growth rates, which will lead to additional job losses and more pressure on households.”

Unions, said Baur were focused on the protection and benefit of their members, while business objectives were towards the production of goods, maintaining profits and survivability.

“Neither approach is sustainable without being holistic,” he said.

Wits University school of business science associate professor Olorunjuwon Samuel, said: “The fact that unions [have been] in possession of a CCMA [Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration] certificate of nonresolution of dispute for over a month now, suggests a somewhat restraint from embarking on a strike.

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“They understood the ability of a company to withstand a strike on the one hand and the enormous wage loss to the striking workers on the other hand.”

The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and SA Federation of Trade Unions (Saftu) maintain the only way to avert strikes was for employers to accede to workers’ wage demands.

Said Cosatu spokesperson Sizwe Pamla: “Strikes are always a port of last resort for workers as the no-work, no-pay rule is usually implemented. Workers go on strike when management refuses to engage and address workers’ concerns. Fix that and workers won’t need to strike.”

Strikes are a legal and constitutional right of workers to withhold their labour.

“The economy is in a deep recession, unemployment at an alltime high of 46%, with 2.2 million having lost their jobs since 2020. The only way to avoid strikes is to address workers’ concerns – a living wage, protection from inflation, job creation and an end to retrenchments.”

Saftu spokesperson Trevor Shaku agreed.

“If employers do not concede [to wage demands], the wave of strikes will not be avoided.

“During 2020, many unionsmade conscious compromises… But even at the time, big corporates made serious profits, as illustrated by Sibanye Stillwater’s profits of R29.3 billion and Anglo American’s R34.5 billion.”