South Africa could pay for its ‘miscalculation’ to side with Russia – experts

Top experts in defence and political science have cautioned that South Africa could pay dearly for its miscalculation to side with Russia, which is economically and strategically irrelevant to the country, as it might face retaliatory isolation from its genuine trading partners in the West.

Independent defence analyst Helmoed-Römer Heitman said the ANC’s continued demonstration of its “slavish loyalty towards Moscow” was based on the “naive belief the Soviet Union felt warm and fuzzy about them”, but it failed to understand it was a democratic state.

“In reality the support for the ANC was just one of the tools to annoy the US. Add a visceral hatred for the US and, to a lesser extent, other western countries [where they were hosted in exile] and you get things like their support to Russia, despite its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. That, despite Russia being of zero economic or strategic relevance to SA,” Heitman said.

Heitman described the relationship between Moscow and Pretoria, and moves by some white South Africans to enter the anti-American fray, as a “rather funny situation”.

“The right-wing whites have let their visceral hatred for the US lead them to also support the Russian invasion. Strange bedfellows,” he said.

The problem was that the next time SA went begging, they may be less willing to help. Then, too, SA’s smaller neighbours might wonder about the country’s support for the unprovoked invasion and annexation.

“Unlikely to cause them sleepless nights, but it will be in the back of their minds,” he said.

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Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotzé from the University of South Africa concurred with Heitman, saying the ANC had weak reason to support Russia because the Russian Federation was different to the Soviet Union, which gave it military support to fight against apartheid.

“Besides, South Africa is in a sort of non-aligned position on international relations, and … they are complicating their own policy of non-alignment.”

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu this week bragged about the presence of “military ally” SA and other African states at the 10th Moscow Conference on International Security.

Shoigu said this was a “visible confirmation” the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation had failed to isolate Russia because of its war in Ukraine.

Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Thandi Modise headed an SA delegation at the conference, a move interpreted as support for Russia, and some claimed it indicated Pretoria backed Moscow in the war.

Department of international relations and cooperation spokesperson Clayson Monyela referred enquiries to the defence department but its spokespersons, Cornelius Monama and Siphiwe Dlamini, were not available for comment.

Kotzé said Moscow was trying to demonstrate it still had support in Africa and parts of Asia. A number of countries had strong relationships with Russia such as Egypt, Algeria and India, due to the previous support they received from the Soviet Union.

Many of these countries still used Soviet weapons, ironically from the Ukraine, where most ANC uMkhonto we Sizwe cadres were also trained militarily.

“South Africa has no military relationship with Russia, neither is it buying weapons from them and there were no joint military exercises between forces.

“That South Africa is a military ally of Russia is not real, just an acknowledgement that Modise has attended their conference.

“SA foreign policy was based on democracy, respect for human rights and the application of the rule of law,” said Kotzé.

“In principle, SA should condemn any war. But the Ukrainian war is a foreign policy crisis for the ANC because it is seen as not following its own principles of non-alignment,” Kotzé said.

While President Cyril Ramaphosa understood the importance of being non-aligned, the ANC’s pro-Russian position is influenced by hawks within the department of international relations and cooperation.

Heitman said: “Russia has to brag about whatever little support it can find.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za