Who will defend SA? Budget cuts weaken SA’s defence forces

While South Africa faces no threat of a conventional war, the billions of rands cut from the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) budget has weakened the armed forces, rendering the country vulnerable to cross-border crime, smuggling, illegal fishing, terrorism and the continued plunder of infrastructure, defence and security analysts warn.

Defence Minister Thandi Modise this week conceded: “The defence force is becoming progressively more unsustainable in terms of the declining defence baseline allocation and we have now reached the point where the republic must decide on the kind of defence force it wants and what it can afford.”

Modise was responding to a written parliamentary question from Economic Freedom Fighters MP Washington Mafanya.

In May, Modise tabled her department’s budget, warning of a looming shortfall of R3 billion. She was allocated R49.1 billion for the 2022-23 financial year.

Defence expert Helmoed-Römer Heitman said while SA had “no quarrel with our neighbours”, it remained vulnerable.

“We are unable to monitor South African surroundings, let alone patrol our waters, islands and the mainland EEZ (exclusive economic zone).

“We cannot patrol in the Mozambique Channel, carrying most of our imported oil and a lot of our trade.

“Until the Gripens [Swedish-made single-engine supersonic multirole fighter aircraft[ are fully operational again, we cannot police our airspace or air borders.

“There is also not enough radar coverage of the borders. We lack the forces to react promptly, swiftly and effectively to a crisis in a neighbouring state or one that threatens a fellow SADC [Southern Africa Development Community] country… We should keep in mind that sub-Saharan Africa is an important export market for us, with security being of direct economic relevance.”

SA, he said, was “not taking defence and security seriously enough, bearing in mind that we live on a volatile continent in an uncertain era”.

“Risks and threats can arise a lot more quickly than a defence force can be rebuilt. The army, SA Air Force and SA Navy, are a little too heavy but not badly in comparison to other countries. The top structure and supporting divisions are badly too heavy.

“The argument about the SANDF being over-strength bases on the 40:30:30 formula that, unfortunately, found its way into the Defence Review from a source unknown to me.

“[This] is nonsense. Every defence force will have different personnel requirements…

“The SANDF is army-heavy and infantry-heavy because its mission set includes border patrol and peacekeeping, both of which require mainly infantry.

“So, personnel cost will be higher than those of a defence force relying more on air power and mechanised forces.”