Russia-Ukraine conflict: Peace mission’s positive side

The Africa peace mission to Ukraine is likely to be a difficult and drawnout affair and definitely a test for President Cyril Ramaphosa, whose nonaligned foreign policy frustrates the United States.

Ramaphosa, whose stance on non-alignment in the Russia-Ukraine conflict was condemned by the West, is at the centre of the peace initiative involving six heads of state: the presidents of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Egypt, Senegal, Zambia and SA. Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotzé, from the University of SA, said irrespective of the mission outcome, it would demonstrate that SA wanted to be even-handed about the situation in Ukraine.

Unrealistic

“South Africa wants to show that it does not only want to be neutral but to be fair and show its approach is not to favour one side over the other.

This is the positive side of this initiative.” Kotzé said. However, he stressed that peace in Ukraine was unrealistic at the moment as both sides had launched new summer offensives.

“They are not at all ready for any form of peace talks. It is more about talks about talks,” he said. International relations professor at Unisa, Prof Jo-Ansie van Wyk, said the success of the Africa initiative to broker peace would depend on whether it was acceptable to the warring sides.

But more importantly, the status or level of officials that Russia and Ukraine delegated to participate in the talks would be the first signal of how seriously they were taking it.

READ MORE: Success of African peace mission ‘will depend on how reasonable Ukraine and Russia are’

Mandate unclear

While the mandate of the group and terms of reference were unclear, the group’s reception by Russia and Ukraine would signal the significance they attached to the African initiative.

Van Wyk said: “This will be a big test for Ramaphosa who, at home, is struggling with many issues. He has a historical record of being a good negotiator and peacemaker, but his peace effort in Lesotho has not been as successful as he would have liked.”

Van Wyk said it must be clear whether the aim of the African peace mission was merely to facilitate or mediate in the process. But their first task must be to persuade both sides to agree to a ceasefire.

Multiple variables to peace

“One of the immediate steps could be a ceasefire and perhaps a withdrawal [by Russia] and territorial issues. This will be a major effort to resolve because of so many variables.

“We know Nato, the European Union and the Americans are involved, but Russia does not have a similar organised security arrangement and is relying on its ideological partners.

“Peace is a process not an event, it could succeed but there are multiple variables on the ground and one is not sure if Africa has the resources to be engaged in such a complex effort,” Van Wyk said.

The hurdles included the complexities of relations, including the interests of the US, Nato and EU on the one hand and Russia’s historical claims against Ukraine on the other, plus convincing the parties to accept a ceasefire and withdrawal.

Additionally, the mission should be endorsed by the UN secretary-general.

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– ericn@citizen.co.za