Cabinet reshuffle: Ramaphosa might ‘sacrifice’ good ministers for political survival

Ministers that President Cyril Ramaphosa would be wise to keep in their portfolios were Minister of Home Affairs, Dr Aaron Motsoaledi, who had been fighting a lone battle to establish a clear immigration framework for South Africa and campaigning against illegal migrants inside the country.

Progress in defence

Another was Department of Defence since Minister Thandi Modise, who had been credited for making progress to achieve relative stability in the department despite its chronic budgetary crisis.

But according to political analysts, the President would be inclined choose his new ministers on the basis of their political influence and their roles to protect his political future.

Experts weigh in

Prof Jan Venter felt those with no political influence may be sacrificed even with their excellent performance as the President would try to get his political position safe.

Venter was echoed by Sandile Swana who said for the reason of political influence, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe would stay and the Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Dr Naledi Pandor, could be sacrificed despite her great performance in the department.

Venter, from the North West University, said Ramaphosa’s approach to Cabinet appointments were not about good performance of an individual Minister but more strategic. He would consolidate the structures that would best serve his political agenda than those that will serve the best interest of South Africa.

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“A minister may be excellent in his post but cannot be sure to be kept in the Cabinet because Ramaphosa will be thinking of security his power structures within the ANC. In Cabinet he wants to drive his own agenda considering that the lines of combat have been drawn with the Zuma faction,” Venter said,.

“So unfortunately the politics of South Africa is taking a back-seat to the politics of (ANC) factionalism,” he added.

Ramaphosa’s armoury had become stronger because of Mantashe, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan and outgoing Minister of Transport, Fikile Mbalula, who had since been elected as ANC secretary-general.

Pandor

While Pandor was respected by some as the strongest Minister ever to head the foreign affairs portfolio since 1994 her age and diminished political clout would be her disadvantage. Pandor was a no-nonsense Cabinet Minister who followed a Mandela approach to foreign relations – often telling the West including the US where to get off and insisted on current South Africa’s position on Ukraine-Russian war, China, Israeli-Palestine issue, Western Sahara.

Swana thought although Pandor was great in doing her job especially articulating the party’s foreign policy on certain issues, but she may not be the cadre that the ANC wanted at this point in time to bolster Ramaphosa’s political survival.

“From position of liberation movement and leftist approach, I think she has done a very good job. However it could be that from a political point of view she may not be useful to the development of careers of Ramaphosa, Mbalula and Mantashe who are the main power brokers inside the ANC. So for that reason she may be sacrificed,” Swana said.

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