Ramaphosa ‘cannot afford’ to fire Mantashe, Gordhan and Cele

President Cyril Ramaphosa has run out of excuses not to reshuffle his Cabinet and the delay has put the ANC on the spot after the party set the end of February as the deadline.

But the fact that Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma signed the load shedding disaster regulations raised eyebrows about her possible retention in the Cabinet.

Some questioned Ramaphosa’s decision to allow her to continue with such a crucial action if she was to be fired.

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The declaration of the state of disaster was meant to overcome the socioeconomic impact of the ongoing load shedding by allocating more resources to deal with it.

Ironically Dlamini-Zuma signed the regulations a day after Ramaphosa would have announced the reshuffle, something that raised speculation that she would stay to oversee the implementation of the regulations.

A rock and a hard place

Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said Ramaphosa was caught between a rock and a hard place – unsure who to fire and who to leave. He wouldn’t like to fire his underperforming allies and would like to avoid dismissing Dlamini-Zuma strategically, to avoid further conflict with KwaZulu-Natal.

Breakfast said Ramaphosa might be wary of getting rid of Dlamini-Zuma and Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu because that would also jeopardise the ANC’s renewal project.

Ramaphosa failed to announce the Cabinet reshuffle, even when he announced the departure of Deputy President David Mabuza yesterday. He said an announcement will be made in due course about Mabuza’s replacement.

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Ramaphosa was expected to announce his Cabinet reshuffle after the ANC elective conference in December, but when that did not happen, observers thought it would be after the ANC annual January 8 statement.

This left the State of the Nation Address as the last hope for him to do it, but he also failed to make the announcement – and again after this year’s budget speech.

His delay left ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula with egg on his face as he had said Ramaphosa would make the Cabinet reshuffle after the budget speech or before end of February. But this did not happen.

Breakfast described the situation as a “mess” and said Ramaphosa wouldn’t like to take an offensive decision around his allies and his opponents because the allies were crucial for his own political survival, while retaining his opponents would help to unite the party and contribute to its renewal, which the president initiated in 2017.

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“The [radical economic transformation] elements have been weakened but they are still there and have not stopped the fight. The president is thinking if Dlamini-Zuma is removed, how will that impact his reconciliation with KwaZulu-Natal,” Breakfast said.

He said Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu were supposed to resign after Ramaphosa was re-elected as ANC president in December. But they decided to stay on so as to challenge him to fire them. Ramaphosa could get rid of the two ministers and others who were opposed to him, but he feared the backlash over the ANC unity and renewal project.

He can’t fire ‘favourites’

Another dilemma behind the delay was the fact that some of Ramaphosa’s favourites, such as Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan and Police Minister Bheki Cele were not pulling their weight.

According to Breakfast, Ramaphosa could not afford to fire Mantashe, Gordhan and Cele because they were his power anchors in the ANC.

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Ramaphosa’s arm was twisted by Mantashe to stay on when he wanted to resign due to the pressure over the Phala Phala burglary scandal. Gordhan was central in the fight against state capture on Ramaphosa’s behalf, while Cele was a conduit to maintain some influence by the president in KwaZulu-Natal, which is Cele’s home province.

“This is more a strategic issue than a tactical issue. The president is trying to keep his favourites in political power and he does not act when serious allegations are made against his allies in the ANC,” Breakfast said.

Ramaphosa creating confusion

Another political analyst, Prof Mazwe Majola, said Ramaphosa’s procrastination was creating unnecessary instability, anxiety and confusion, not just for the citizens, but also for the ministers who were unsure whether the axe would fall on them.

Majola said Ramaphosa had run out of excuses because there was absolutely no reason for his dilly-dallying and procrastination over reshuffling his Cabinet.

“He is bereft of the sense of urgency. He thinks that the whole world revolves around him. We have hoped he would improve in his decisiveness,” Majola said.

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“It is shocking and surprising that the president has only been consulting the tripartite alliance over the weekend and ANC senior leaders a couple of days ago,” said Majola.

“What was he doing all along? This is reprehensible. The president is taking too much time to make decisions and this is not good for the country at all.”

– ericn@citizen.co.za