Ramaphosa already has second term in the bag – analyst

While insiders have hinted at President Cyril Ramaphosa’s imminent Cabinet reshuffle – a move which could spruce up the party’s public image ahead of the watershed 2024 national polls – political expects are unanimous in discounting such a possibility in the run-up to the ANC national elective conference in December.

Two highly placed sources within the ANC on Sunday told The Citizen about how Ramaphosa has been mulling over how best to deal with the party’s image, tarnished by corruption, state capture and some Cabinet members failing to deliver on his mandate.

“Getting rid of dead wood, ministers and senior civil servants who are an impediment to true service delivery and a clean government is what the president seeks to do through a Cabinet reshuffle,” said one source.

“The president is very much aware of the impact [of the way] the ANC is being perceived by the public and wants this negativity changed sooner in the run-up to the 2024 elections,” said another.

But, said political analysts, a Cabinet reshuffle was unlikely to take place before the all-important ANC national conference.

Independent political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga said: “ANC politics are currently quite tense for a Cabinet reshuffle. “The Cabinet will most likely last for three months and the president should wait for the ANC national conference.”

Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast from the department of history and political studies at the Nelson Mandela University said a Cabinet reshuffle might be misinterpreted, “giving ammunition to his political detractors to take a swipe at him. I don’t see that happening”.

“He is likely to co-opt one or two people into his Cabinet, but not reshuffle,” said Breakfast.

“[Ramaphosa] is going to be very circumspect because a reshuffle has a political meaning. “The rationale behind a Cabinet reshuffle is to consolidate power and entrench dominance.

“In the real scheme of things, that might not sit well with some people within the ANC.” Indications were that Ramaphosa was going to be re-elected for the second term and he did not need to consolidate his power.

“The outcome of the ANC nomination process has seen many provinces having announced him as the preferred candidate for president,”said Breakfast.

“After the elective conference, we might see a to reshuffle. He might want to communicate a message that he is in charge.

“When he ascended to power, he made a lot of commitments he did not honour. These included a commitment to grow the economy, which has not been growing the way it should have.

“Service delivery is not looking good at local government [level]. We have a challenge of a shortage of water and load shedding. Many people feel let down by him.”

Ramaphosa’s second term might be a challenge. Breakfast said: “As ANC president, you might not complete it if you are not careful.

“Some people can easily betray you in your second term, because you are not coming back. “There will be a lot of realignment of forces within the ANC.

“Even now, some people are not focusing on this upcoming ANC national conference, but on the following one due to positioning themselves as deputy president and secretary-general.

“The president is going to intensify his efforts in terms of making sure the ANC looks good. But the team he is surrounded by is letting him down.”

University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze said Ramaphosa would “not alienate his senior comrades, through a Cabinet reshuffle”, while Roland Henwood, a University of Pretoria politics lecturer, said: “Cabinet should have been reshuffled a long time ago.” – brians@citizen.co.za

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