Power crisis: Is Eskom’s respite just the calm before the storm?

While Eskom has suspended load shedding due to improved grid stability, experts caution the relief may be temporary. With winter expected to drive up electricity demand, they doubt whether the power utility has sufficient reserve capacity to prevent future blackouts.

Despite ongoing constraints, Eskom announced that load shedding will remain suspended as the national grid stabilises. However, the utility briefly implemented stage 2 power cuts on Thursday without prior notice. The utility has had four load shedding declarations in more than four weeks, citing increased demand and generation challenges.

Concerns over winter demand

Energy expert and former Eskom executive Vally Padayachee warned Eskom may not have sufficient supply to meet winter demand. “Winter temperatures drive up consumption, and supply may struggle to keep up.

“Eskom has declared four rounds of load shedding in the past month, underscoring the risk of further power cuts.

“Currently, Eskom lacks a sustainable reserve margin – the extra capacity needed to absorb unexpected generation losses.”

Padayachee said Eskom’s current energy availability factor (EAF) is about 60%, far below the 70%- 75% needed to eliminate load shedding entirely.

“Unless new generation units and plants currently under maintenance return to service in time, Eskom may not have sufficient spare capacity to prevent load shedding this winter.”

Deeper issues beyond maintenance

Padayachee said Eskom needs more than technical and financial interventions – it requires a psychological turnaround to prevent a worst-case scenario.

“Maintenance efforts are not comprehensive enough. Many coal-fired power stations are ageing, and Eskom faces people-related issues affecting efficiency, procurement failures, including poor-quality critical components, and incompetent contractors – though not all – financial constraints, preventing thorough repairs and leadership challenges in key areas. Until these deeper issues are addressed, Eskom’s long-term stability will remain uncertain.”

Fragile grid and delayed repairs

According to energy and infrastructure finance specialist Ruse Moleshe, SA’s electricity supply was managed relatively well despite recent power cuts. However, she warned delays in bringing plants back online and the fragile state of the grid heading into winter pose significant risks.

“While the risk of load shedding remains and its impact on the economy is undesirable, a key mitigating factor is that most recent incidents were caused by failures in ancillary equipment like transformers rather than major breakdowns of turbines and generators.

“The biggest concern is delays in returning plants from unplanned outages. Until SA has sufficient reserve capacity, there are no guarantees that load shedding won’t return,” she said.

Planned maintenance and future prospects

Eskom said on Friday it is maintaining high levels of planned maintenance to improve fleet reliability in preparation for increased winter demand and ensure compliance with environmental and regulatory requirements.

“This may require the strategic use of emergency reserves, particularly during morning and evening peak periods. Currently, planned maintenance stands at 6 793MW,” Eskom said.

Moleshe said Eskom’s planned maintenance of up to 7 500MW is unprecedented in recent years.

“The plants currently under maintenance are expected to return by the end of March, improving grid stability and increasing availability to meet demand.

“Eskom has also made progress in raising its EAF, which has given it more room to conduct maintenance.

“Bringing back the remaining Kusile and Medupi power station units will further ensure long-term grid sustainability,” Moleshe said.

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