Political chess: ANC’s coalition fix ahead of 2024 general elections

Although the ANC is hoping to win next year’s general election with a majority, a coalition between it and smaller parties is possible and could be a better option for South Africa’s political stability.

Observers believe that if the ANC loses its outright majority next year, it has a choice to align with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Democratic Alliance (DA), or a group of smaller parties.

Observers and people inside the party believe the best option would be to bring smaller black parties together to form a coalition government.

The ANC pursues a social democratic ideology with a mixed economy and will have to make major ideological compromises if it enters into a coalition with either party.

Some observers say that in 1996, the ANC divorced itself from pursuing a socialist approach to neoliberalism, where business plays a central role in economic growth.

But it remains in an ideological no-man’s land, with some political analysts saying the party has no ideology at the moment.

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The government has been under pressure to implement economic reforms, including reducing its public debt and fiscal belt-tightening.

These have shifted the ANC to the centre-right – terrain it now shares with the DA. If the ANC aligns with the DA, it might fear being labelled a “sellout” by certain elements in the party.

Also, the EFF’s radical leftist policies do not resonate with many moderates in the ANC.

Political analysts say the ANC needs neither the DA nor the EFF, but only to win over the smaller parties, especially if it gets just below 50% at the polls.

Political analyst Daniel Silke sees the “smaller parties” coalition as an easier option.

He said if the ANC received between 45%-48% of the vote, it would need relatively small opposition parties to form a coalition with and continue to govern.

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Silke said these parties would not give the ANC any trouble as the largest coalition partner, unlike if it was in a coalition with the EFF or the DA.

“I think the party will be looking at that kind of result where it needs a small and relatively harmless opposition party or parties to get into bed with it.”

Silke said another option would be for the ANC to invoke patronage by offering various incentives to desperate parties to lure them to its fold.

“It can introduce fear into the election campaign, it can introduce racial rhetoric… and I expect it to be all of the above,” he said.