Will the Expropriation Act destroy the GNU?

When the government of national unity (GNU) came into being seven months ago, the country’s biggest fear was that it would be unstable.

That would be because the biggest parties in the coalition, the ANC and the DA, would be second-guessing each other at every turn.

Those fears were not unfounded.

The DA has threatened to walk away with literally every piece of legislation that President Cyril Ramaphosa has signed into law, but the GNU has proven to be surprisingly resilient, standing firm even as the main members squabble.

All that might be about to change though because the DA has promised to fight against the Land Expropriation Act the president signed into law this past week.

This particular law will indeed put the GNU under a fine microscope and, if the DA or the ANC allow their kneejerk reactions to be their guiding principles, the cracks that have been developing with each passing month will become permanent.

ALSO READ: ‘They can take all property’: SA divided over new Expropriation Bill

Then the country will be back where it was immediately after the elections – in an unstable no-man’s-land.

The parties’ stay in the GNU is affected by entirely different motivations for each.

The ANC has to deal with its own internal demons which the president has to keep managing as it has become clear that the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party-inflicted near-defeat in the May elections has put the ANC into permanent crisis mode.

The reconfiguration of the party leadership in their previously most powerful provinces, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, due to the losses at the polls has a direct bearing on whether the party will stay in the GNU or not.

If the Panyaza Lesufi-led faction in Gauteng prevails, the ANC’s stay in the GNU is not guaranteed.

The DA’s stay in the GNU, on the other hand, is motivated more by keeping what they’ve previously described as the doomsday coalition at bay.

ALSO READ: Expropriation Law welcomed by labour but DA threatens to challenge it

It is more driven to stay in to keep the ANC away from forming a coalition with the EFF and MK parties than by anything else.

The problem for it is a good section of its votes come from a section of the population that is not interested at all in ensuring that the historical injustices surrounding the land issue are corrected.

To ensure it keeps the votes in next year’s local government elections, it must be seen to be fighting the Expropriation Act at all costs.

And this may be what leads to the crumbling of the GNU cookie.

It needs to be said that the ANC is emboldened simply by the fact that it appears to have options outside of the GNU.

Whether those options are good or bad for the stability of the country as a whole does not matter much to some of the factions right now.

ALSO READ: Threats of legal action after Expropriation Bill signed into law

It feels emboldened as it passes law after law, in a way saying to the DA, “you cannot do much to stop us because if you do we’ll simply replace you”.

What the ANC is missing in its game plan is that passing legislation does not translate into progress.

National Health Insurance, the Basic Education Laws Amendment and the Expropriation Acts are, on paper, some of the most radical laws that the ANC has passed into law over the last 30 years.

But that is all they are for now, laws on paper.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

It is what the laws will do for ordinary, poor South Africans that will count in the end.

NOW READ: Ramaphosa signs controversial Expropriation Bill into law