Will the angry masses rise?

Normally, the first period of “afternoon school”, from 2pm, was an exercise in trying to stay awake and ward off the effects of a packet of slap chips consumed during lunchtime.

But history with Mr Stewart was always different, it was always interesting.

On this day, as we discussed the French Revolution and our 14-year-old minds were slowly joining the dots of Rhodesian society, someone asked: “Sir, do you think Ian Smith is leading the Africans to revolution?”

His response: “Do you want me to get sacked?” Then he moved the debate along into less dangerous waters. That revolution had already passed beyond intellectual discussion, though, and on into a civil war which would claim more than 30 000 lives.

Revolutions

Less than five years later, I would be carrying an MAG machinegun around the bush in defence of what, Smith told us, was “Western civilisation”. Revolutions happen when people feel they cannot continue under the yoke of oppression, inequality or poverty.

All three were present in the then-Rhodesia; the latter two in France in 1789. Those last two are facets of life in South Africa today … and the question which is increasingly being asked here, is: Are we on the brink of a revolution?

Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema has suggested that we are … and that this will be some sort of “unled”, or spontaneous, uprising.

People suffering

How realistic is that, though? Undoubtedly, the people at the bottom of the pyramid in South Africa are suffering … although the reality, whether its opponents like it or not, is that the ANC has done much to give ordinary people a “better life” through improvements in education, health and electricity and water supply.

Though these may be in crisis currently, does not detract from the fact that, before 1994, many people went without. But just because people are better off doesn’t mean they will be docile. Workers and peasants in 1789 France were some of the best off in Europe.

They had a taste of a better life and wanted more … to the extent of throwing out the ruling classes. Could this happen in South Africa? If one looks only at the capability of our security services to deal with what Cyril Ramaphosa called an “insurrection” in 2021, then, obviously, the answer is yes.

Protests

Our cops and soldiers are nothing like as capable, or ruthless, as the security forces of Zimbabwe which, under Robert Mugabe and current ruler Emmerson Mnangagwa, have crushed dissent – incidentally, far harder than Ian Smith ever did…

Malema is also right about the spontaneous nature of service delivery protests, which see anger flare quickly about local issues.

SA’s future

Whether this can be harnessed into a national revolt which overthrows the ANC is also doubtful: 2021 showed there was little appetite beyond KwaZulu-Natal for anti-Ramaphosa actions.

The reality is that when the majority of South Africans – people who vote for, and continue to vote for, the ANC – protest by setting tyres alight or burning down a library, they don’t do so as a statement against the ruling party. If you doubt that, remember the rapturous reception Ramaphosa got when he went to “inspect” the wrecked sewage plant outside Hammanskraal.

This is a community which hasn’t had clean water for years and where more than 20 people have died from cholera.

These were people dying to see their president. Revolution? In South Africa? Not any time soon.

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