Why today’s elections signal a potential shift in SA politics

What makes today’s elections special is the level of uncertainty. With the ANC looking vulnerable for the first time in 30 years, no-one knows what the outcome will be.

Who will be president, which party or parties will be in charge? Angazi.

The palpable uncertainty is reflected, for example in the Institute of Race Relations presenting 12 different scenarios of varying feasibility.

Uncertainty is also evident in daily reports about South Africa’s most reliable daily tracking poll, published by the Social Research Foundation (SRF).

The SRF detects “an unprecedented degree of voter uncertainty about which party to support as the ANC fractures, and is causing a small share of voters to move back and forth between the ANC, EFF, MK and also the DA.”

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Every day people ask, what will be the outcome of the elections?

So we trot out prejudices, even as the SRF caution that their tracking poll is “not a forecast of the election result, but rather a snapshot of the daily current position”.

Any considered opinion should be hedged about with provisos regarding methodology, voter turnout percentages, margins of error and so on.

Yet so-called political analysts, who pop up everywhere without qualifications or even demonstrable intelligence, will happily share ill-informed predictions.

In our media, there is no discernible background requirement for anyone to be trotted out as a political analyst.

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Because of the uncertainty – and the apparent likelihood of change – a lot more people are wondering what they should be doing about it.

As the gaps narrow, each vote makes a difference. The outcome affects you.

Ancient Greek philosopher Pericles declared: “Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.”

More recently, 20th-century American author Martha Gellhorn wrote: “People often say, with pride: ‘I’m not interested in politics.’ They might as well say: ‘I’m not interested in my standard of living, my health, my job, my rights, my freedoms, my future or any future.’

“If we mean to keep any control over our world and lives, we must be interested in politics.”

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People who are elected can have a direct impact on your life in multiple ways, including how much tax you pay and what it is spent on. To leave all politics to “others” is unwise.

Regrettably many are too late for today’s historic opportunity for change.

Despite huge efforts by the IEC and political parties, too many remain ignorant about political processes.

After two extensively publicised registration weekends and overdoses of information about deadlines for reregistration, when and how to apply for special votes, etc, we are still getting requests from people who should know better.

Voter education should be taught properly in all schools.

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In the 2019 elections, more eligible people didn’t vote than voted for the ANC.

And despite the population increasing to 61 million, there has been only a slight increase in the number of registered voters, from 26 779 025 to 27 672 264.

I don’t know what it will take for more people to exercise their political rights.

But defeat for the ANC should provide enough of a jolt. Please vote.