What could make Zuma leave the ANC?

With all the talk recently of pro-Jacob Zuma supporters looking to create yet another ANC breakaway party, the key question remains whether Zuma himself is part of it, or could ever be.

It’s not a simple matter. The ANC is the only political home Jacob Zuma has ever had. For him to even consider the possibility that he might not be buried in a coffin draped in ANC colours probably goes against every fibre in his being.

But nevertheless, he is a cunning strategist and the ultimate political survivor, so he would no doubt have considered most of the variables this “opportunity” of a possible new party presents to him.

It’s not his idea. But many of those close to him, including friends and family, have been urging Zuma to leave the ANC and be the face of this new political party. They are convinced he remains popular enough in KwaZulu-Natal, and in other places throughout the country, to make a proper dent in the ANC’s support.

If he were to urge his supporters to vote against the ANC, particularly by portraying himself as a victim of the ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance, who knows how much of the vote he would get. I’ve heard estimates from as low as 3% of the vote (that’s still 12 seats in parliament) to as high as 12% (that’s nearly 50 seats), or even more.

Don’t be fooled by everything you read – Zuma remains a very popular man. If you accept that he remains popular, despite all the scandals that have dogged him for 13 years, and that he might be able to bring the ANC below 50% of the vote in next year’s elections, it makes for fascinating speculation.

He’s hanging on to whatever leverage he can right now, because his primary goal must be to remain out of prison. If he comes across as weak and defenceless, his enemies in the alliance will smell blood. If he still seems to be a well-armoured target who can give as good as he gets, we may find the political appetite to prosecute him will fade and the corruption trial against him will end – not with a bang, but with a whimper.

No doubt Zuma has learnt a lesson or two from his old enemy Julius Malema.

Malema is as corrupt as the day is long at the South Pole in December, but despite a strong case against the EFF leader, that red-overalled little man still hasn’t gone to jail. Malema now has his own party, which wields considerable influence thanks to the unpredictability of coalition politics. Whether it’s true that the power of the EFF has in any way contributed to keeping Malema out of jail is neither here nor there; what matters is that it seems that way.

For others around Zuma, such as perennial hardcore supporters Hlaudi Motsoeneng, Supra Mahumapelo and others who must feel their days in a Cyril Ramaphosa-led ANC are numbered, they may feel they could become MPs or get other political positions by riding the Zuma wave to a new party. And they could force concessions out of the ANC in a coalition. So there’s a lot of upside for them if Zuma decides to fight in the theatre of politics against the ANC.

But the reality is that first prize for them must be to somehow regain control of the ANC. Plan A remains for them to “ride out” the next four and a half years and hope to take over again at the next ANC conference in 2022. They will know that five years can go by in a blink. Zuma will simply try to delay and frustrate his prosecution for as long as he can.

Plan B, a new party, is the measure of last resort. But you can’t escape the fact that ANC elections will only happen again in 2022, and national elections are only one year away. It then becomes a question of whether you grab the carrot that’s right in front of you, or wait years to get the whole carrot patch back.

For now, Zuma must be enjoying the fact that he can point to all the speculation around this notional party as a way to make himself look like a loyal ANC cadre who’s being persecuted. Talk of this new party serves the primary goal for him of reminding the ANC that he’s not without options, and will continue to play chess until the moment he can claim that he was “forced” to campaign against the ANC. If he feels he’s doomed either way, he may just decide to take the ANC down with him.

Some in the ANC may be willing to take their chances against Zuma, and would probably even prefer to see him leave. But no matter how you look at it, it is likely to hurt the ruling party. Maybe Zuma does in fact know many of those dirty, dark secrets about everyone else, as we’ve so often been led to believe.

Wen Zuma calmly pronounces warnings such as “don’t provoke me”, it’s clear all his options – including a breakaway party – must surely be on the table.

It will come down to a simple equation. He will leave at the moment when he stands to gain more by abandoning the ANC than he does by staying with it. We’re perhaps still a long way from that point, but it’s not inconceivable that a tipping point will come – and perhaps sooner than we think.

Citizen digital editor Charles Cilliers