Voting behaviour shift makes US election less predictable

US polls are predictive to the extent that voting behaviour within groups remains relatively stable.

This is not just about who people vote for, but even if certain groups of people vote at all and, if so, what proportion votes.

When changes occur faster than the models can account for, then the polls are more indicative than predictive, much as a litmus test can let you know if something is tending towards acid or alkaline, or neutral.

While most polls in the US have kept iterating that the race is too close to call, I argue that the current polls are insufciently predictive, given some big changes in voting behaviour within some key – and unexpected – groups.

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I believe that GenZ is being under-sampled in relation to two factors. First, their voting history as a group, say 18-29-year-olds, has historically not been stellar, but has been stable over time.

Second, they tend to screen calls so those who do answer the pollsters are possibly not representative of the group.

As a result, models based on their past voting behaviour is not, I believe, predictive of the current situation as the TikTok generation, born in the tumult of BLM and “Time’s Up!” are not only energised, but also organised and Kamala Harris’ campaign speaks fluent GenZ.

A second big group that is shifting dramatically is women, including white women, which is the largest demographic within female voters, with 58% of the US population being white.

They have shifted to the Harris-Walz ticket. The Dobbs decision overthrowing Roe v Wade has affected women’s health negatively, both maternal morbidity and child mortality have increased, and life-saving care has been denied due to fear of legal action, even in open-and-shut cases of the death in utero of a much-wanted child since in some states, care can only be provided when the woman is dying.

Women’s lives are at stake and they and their families and communities have borne witness to too much suffering.

Young women and men are most directly affected by this decision and this, in turn, is a driver in voter registration and early voting.

Over 75 million citizens voted early, which is more than voted for Trump in 2020, and in Georgia, a key swing state, close to 560 000 early voters did not vote in the 2020 elections and of these, 34% are between 18 and 29 years of age and 54% are women.

In the winner-takes-all electoral college, battleground states have been won by as little as 10 000 votes, so 560 000 is significant.

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While early voting patterns are not necessarily indicative of later voting, the battleground states are reporting up to a 10-point gender differences, with 55% of voters being female and 45% male.

In earlier elections, the difference was 4%, not 10% and if this trend continues in same day voting, this is likely the key game-changer.

The maths is not hard. If more women vote than men, and the differential between Harris and Trump is that women – including white women – favour her ticket, the likelihood of their campaign winning enough states is vastly increased.

A third key group is found within the crucial “must-win” battleground state of Pennsylvania; Trump’s very own “October surprise!” of alienating around 300 000 Puerto Ricans eligible to vote, not to mention other swing states, is very much an own goal.

I predict that the late decision-makers will break for Harris, including enough Republicans to make the crucial difference, while exit polls of early voters very much bakes her in as the preferred candidate.

• Kure is founder and CEO of the Steam Foundation

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