Trump is bad news for ANC

President Cyril Ramaphosa told parliament this week South Africa’s “principled solidarity with peoples burdened under the yoke of oppression will not waver”.

That’s an admirable undertaking, depending on how it is executed.

One hopes that the ANC weighs the effect of any crusades to liberate the world of supposed oppression will have on our relationship with the US, SA’s second-biggest trading partner after China, as well as the European nations that for decades have been generous in terms of both aid and trade.

ALSO READ: Republicans must embrace political realities

Despite all the talk about the diminished influence of the US in a multipolar world and the end of the American era, virtually every nation is watching the American presidential race with keen attention, trepidation, and hope. Even faltering giants – perhaps especially faltering giants – can cause havoc.

Nothing has played out as it was scripted by the Democratic Party. President Joe Biden, it was assumed, would sail to victory over his divisive challenger, Donald Trump.

Instead, with under four months to go, Biden succumbed to the inevitable, when every campaign appearance is a publicly scored cognitive function test and you are a faltering, almost 82-year-old man.

With the donors in revolt, the majority of his party’s voters sceptical of his lucidity, Biden withdrew his candidacy.

As a result, the race appears to have shifted again. Democrat donors have opened their wallets again, the media has largely thrown its weight behind Vice-President Kamala Harris and she is nationally neck-to-neck with Trump. The stakes are high.

While Trump has never been the existential threat to the survival of US democracy that he has been painted to be, there’s no doubt that America’s allies – and its enemies, except for Russia – would prefer a less volatile person in the White House.

ALSO READ: Trump is not irreplaceable

The SA government, especially, will be on tenterhooks. Our move from a traditionally pro-Western position under successive ANC governments proceeded steadily to a nominally non-aligned stance. Under Ramaphosa, this has tilted further to barely concealed hostility.

When pragmatic national self-interest in foreign policy is subjugated to purely ideologically driven choices, there is invariably a high cost for the country concerned.

On the 5 November result hinges the price that SA may have to pay for its pivot towards Russia, China and Iran; its fraternal embrace of the terror organisation Hamas in Gaza and, to a lesser extent, Hezbollah in Lebanon; and its hostility towards Israel.

A Democratic administration headed by Harris will be the ANC’s fervent hope.

Political life here will continue as normal. There will be the occasional spats, but this will always be tempered by a willingness to continue the bribery – preferential trade agreements and, for the past 20 years, more than a third of a billion dollars annually for its HIV/Aids programmes.

ALSO READ: Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race

A Republic administration headed by Trump is a bleaker scenario. Trump is far more difficult to predict – the single aspect that most worries world leaders.

He might well share the Russian view on what it would take to settle the Ukraine invasion but, at the same time, will increase pressure on China, especially as Xi Jinping tries to expand Chinese influence in Africa.

And there can be little doubt that the ANC cosying up to terrorist organisations, as well as its displays of solidarity with the likes of Syria, Iran, Yemen, Venezuela and Cuba, will likely elicit from Trump not bribery but retribution.

The ANC’s determination to set SA on a radical foreign policy path has suddenly become more difficult. And more dangerous to the nation’s true interests.