True test for DA mettle

What transpires at Wednesday’s second attempt at a budget speech will show whether the DA is at last significantly shaping some aspects of national policy, as opposed to just helping a disastrous government to operate more efficiently.

The DA’s refusal to pass Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s annual budget because of its proposed “anti-poor” two percentage point increase in VAT rocked the ANC.

It seemed that at last the DA had a populist issue over which it could dig in, an issue that couldn’t be dismissed as yet another example of the DA’s supposed “nostalgia for apartheid”.

What victories has DA claimed in GNU?

Any ANC retreat on the budget would be a rare victory for the DA.

Until now, the DA’s most significant government of national unity (GNU) achievement has been the one that drove it to join in the first place: to keep out the radicals of MK Party and the EFF.

For the rest, it’s been a somewhat disappointing performance.

The greatest embarrassment has been its “red lines” on the Basic Education Laws Amendment and Expropriation Acts, which turned out to have all the durability of chalk in a thunderstorm.

The likely budget concessions will buoy the DA.

It’s become the ultimate “red-line” issue.

ALSO READ: Will Godongwana deliver the budget without any problems?

ANC at DA’s mercy to pass budget

Party leader and GNU Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen said as much to me.

Our conversation was in response to last week’s Jaundiced Eye column on the airbrushing out of an official newsletter of the presence of TJ de Jager – leader of the small-farming agricultural organisation Saai (Southern African Agri Initiative) and an outspoken critic of the Expropriation Act and race quotas – from Steenhuisen’s side during a ministerial conference in Berlin.

“The moment we are unable to support the jobs and growth agenda in the country, we will have no choice but to leave because that was the main thrust about why we went into it.

“The reality is that every other party in the GNU can vote for the budget but without the DA, it won’t pass.

The other option they have is to get the EFF and MK on board.

ALSO READ: DA responds to ANC’s threat to approach EFF to get budget passed

But the beauty of this issue, unlike Bela and expropriation, is that it’s highly unlikely that a backstop exists for the ANC in this matter.

They really are now at the mercy of us being able to flex and get some key demands that we would like out of the budget on the table going forward.”

Flaws in DA’s plans

Implicit in Steenhuisen’s words is a DA notion that holding the whip hand over the budget will translate to negotiating power in other arenas, such as the Expropriation Act.

While these DA assumptions may be comforting, there are a number of potential flaws.

The first is that the DA win on the budget has to be big enough to reset SA’s perilous economic trajectory.

Saving a few points on value-added tax simply doesn’t cut it. To win, taxes can’t be raised. Borrowing can’t be increased.

ALSO READ: 2025 Budget: ‘VAT is not a poor people’s tax’ – Mantashe

Government expenditure must be slashed, not trimmed.

The second flaw is that US President Donald Trump has lit a dynamite fuse on SA and events are moving fast.

If the Expropriation Act is going to be neutered, this has to be done quickly.

In short, time is of the essence. SA can’t afford another eight months for the ANC to comprehend that it needs to compromise on its suicidal embrace of Iran, its championing of terror organisations against Israel, its confusion over Ukraine and its taunting of the US.

It’s on these issues that the true value of DA participation in the GNU will be measured.

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