Thucydides Trap or peaceful future? The global stakes

In the context of current geopolitics, the question of the “Thucydides Trap or orderly multipolar world”, has occupied the debate by scholars in South Africa.

Over a decade ago, Harvard University professor Graham Allison, warned about the “war between the United States and China in the decades ahead”.

Allison said it was “not just possible, but much more likely than recognised at the moment”.

“Indeed, judging by the historical record, war is more likely than not,” he argued.

But experts such as author and research fellow at Stanford University Xinru Ma have critiqued the Thucydides Trap – the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power – regarding it as “a selection bias”.

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The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection hosted a recent two-day conference on the topic, which shed light on the thinking.

An orderly multipolar world is surely what we all yearn for – not war.

SA policy strategist Joel Netshitenzhe posed hard questions: “Are failures in social evolution due to the folly of self-indulgent leaders who in their hubris, misdirect nations towards malignant behaviour?

“Are they due to the inability to predict, adapt to and mitigate natural disasters?

“Is it because ossified religious beliefs drag communities down the rabbit hole of righteous self-destruction?

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“Is it the inability to tame the wonders of innovation and direct them towards common human benefit or is it the arrogance of empires that seek to freeze history in the belief of a manifest destiny to lead?”

Considering political and geostrategic factors playing out in a shifting dynamic between unipolarity and multipolarity, Africa and Asia have largely chosen to be part of the group of progressive nations, pushing for multipolarity.

Gone are the days of global bullies, when it was easy for superpowers to be inconsiderate of other countries in pushing for their agenda to be globally accepted – despite being unpalatable.

While economic and diplomatic competitiveness between the US and China should be regarded as a healthy development, it should not lead to any animosity or “war”, as Allison has asserted. An atmosphere of trust and win-win, is what the world today wants.

Chinese ambassador to South Africa Wu Peng said the question of “Thucydides Trap or orderly multipolar world” was “truly thoughtprovoking”.

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“I believe this so-called trap is neither an unbreakable law, nor a certainty. The future’s path should not be bound by historical fatalism, but rather guided by the choices we make today.

“Chinese President Xi Jinping also stated on multiple occasions that the co-called Thucydides Trap does not exist in reality.

“However, if major countries continue to make strategic miscalculations, they could end up creating such traps for themselves.

“The world is big enough for all countries to develop themselves and prosper together.”

Wu described China-US relationship as “one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world”.

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“Whether China and the United States have a cooperative or confrontational relationship bears on the well-being of the Chinese and American peoples and the future of humanity.

“Under the new circumstances, China and the US have more, not fewer, common interests.

“Promoting world economic recovery – settling international and regional issues – require both countries to coordinate and cooperate, thinking and acting as major countries.

“The two countries’ respective success is an opportunity for each other.”

With no tradition of external expansion, China has chosen the path of peace and cooperation – something commendable.

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