The state of Joburg is dire, like most of the country

In the absence of the official Joburg state of the city address, which has been postponed because of the mayoral merry-go-round, here’s a ward councillor’s version.

The state of the city is dire, like most of the country. Worse than most realise. We are edging to an electricity blackout, grid collapse. No matter how much you complain about City Power, Eskom or load shedding, electricity supply is going to become more erratic.

While courts can instruct Eskom to exempt schools, hospitals and police stations from load shedding, judges cannot keep the lights on. Instead, attempting to enforce such court orders could hasten grid collapse.

ALSO READ: Electricity minister warns that the next 150 days will be ‘very difficult’

Some customers vent their frustrations by cursing councillors, puppet mayors, and City Power officials. That won’t fix anything while the current political class is in charge.

The minister of electricity, who doesn’t have a job description, is a joke. What Eskom describes as stage 6 load shedding is often a higher stage in disguise.

“City Power near collapse”, the Saturday Citizen front-page headline, was spot-on. City Power is at breaking point.

“On practically every measure, its financial position is dire. Collections are far below what was anticipated. …. Given near-constant load shedding, this is unsurprising. The figures for later quarters of this fiscal are going to be worse.”

ALSO READ: ‘It’s raining ad hoc committees’: Parliament at odds over monitoring electricity minister

Debt repayments are completely unsustainable. For a long time, ward councillors have been advising residents to invest in solar panels, inverters and batteries. Unconfirmed reports suggest about 18 000 households have done so. Yet few have enough to be completely off-grid.

Preparation for total blackout requires much more than inverters and whatnot. No-one can say precisely how close we are to collapse.

However, the National Rationalisation Specifications Association last week finalised protocols for stage 9 load shedding.

“We are being asked to brace ourselves for stage 10 in the coming winter,” says Samantha Graham-Maré, MP and shadow minister of electricity.

ALSO READ: Electricity theft costs Eskom over R1 billion a month – De Ruyter

As Johannesburg residents have discovered, repeated long outages disrupt water supply and cellphone signals. Grid collapse will amplify such disruptions.

Kate Lorimer, holder of a master’s degree in disaster management, and registered with the Disaster Management Institute of Southern Africa, has published a guide: Prepare your family for a total electricity grid collapse, South Africa, 2023.

She says it would take from six to 12 weeks, or longer, to restart the grid. For a short period after grid collapse, a few services might be available where there is some power back-up. But this won’t last.

Soon, cellphones, landlines, internet and data will fail. So there will be no social media – WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, e-mail, etc. TV and radio will also be affected. Tap water will run out and sewers will block as pumps fail. Petrol, gas and paraffin will be largely unavailable.

ALSO READ: Doomsday can be averted if we vote for those who know how to fix electricity supply

In these conditions, police, nurses, doctors, teachers, security guards, domestic and care workers are likely to stay home to look after their families. Security will be a bigger problem than it is now. Winter is coming. So, too, is grid collapse, unless we elect people who can get things done.

Knock, knock.

Who’s there?

Armageddon.

Armageddon who?

Armageddon outa here.