The end of South Africa’s invulnerability and the growing crisis

The annual World Economic Forum shindig at Davos last week was bliss for President Cyril Ramaphosa with all that networking with fellow billionaires, presidents and influencers.

Ramaphosa delivered a “special address” to outline his plans for SA’s 2025 presidency of the G20. He explained how lucky the world was to have an African hand on the tiller because “it was in Africa where humans developed the capacity and impulse for cooperation”.

He also wove in some Nelson Mandela quotes, always a crowd-pleaser.

It was a disconcerting speech, detached from evolving realities. Ramaphosa seems unaware, or maybe just indifferent, how quickly the election of President Trump and the US exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, as well as a worldwide electoral backlash against the cost of “net zero”, is forcing governments to adjust their national policy trajectories.

No sooner had he arrived home than his administration was engulfed by two crises: the potential loss of billions of rands of US donor health care funding and a stinging military setback in the DRC.

ALSO READ: Malema warns Ramaphosa: SA not ready for war in DRC

Trump’s 90-day suspension last Friday of all US foreign assistance programmes in order to evaluate their alignment with his administration’s policy objectives, will be a blow to nations that depend on US assistance, but behave hostilely to the interests of the US and its allies.

As detailed in this column last week, Pepfar (US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief) has, since 2003, given SA more than R150 billion.

The loss of Pepfar is medically containable.

The cost of HIV/Aids medicines is covered by the department of health. Pepfar funds interventions on the delivery side.

Serious though the Pepfar loss is, the far more damage result of a US funding policy swerve will be its effect on SA’s world-leading medical expertise, fostered over decades by billions of rands from the US National Institutes of Health. Research will grind to a halt or, at least, slow dramatically. Staff will be slashed.

ALSO READ: Nigerian singer Tems cancels show in Rwanda because of country’s role in DRC conflict [VIDEO]

Barely had the donor disinvestment crisis registered, than the death of 13 SA National Defence Force (SANDF) soldiers in the DRC, killed by rebels backed by Rwanda, triggered another emergency.

The SANDF heads a Southern African Development Community Military Mission against forces challenging the DRC government.

Despite decades of warnings that the military budget was far outstripped by the government’s geopolitical ambitions, nothing was done.

Last week’s losses, the result of overreach, logistic failures and an inability to provide air support, were the final straw, triggering a cacophony of public criticism and anger.

Matters were not improved when the chiefs of the army and entire phalanx of generals turned out for a festive golf day instead of applying their minds to the plight of their soldiers.

ALSO READ: ‘SA’s on back foot’: SA weakened in DRC crisis after 13 soldiers killed

Ramaphosa blamed the escalation on Rwanda and called on the UN and SADC to compel it to respect the “territorial integrity” of the DRC.

President Paul Kagame reacted with belligerence. He accused Ramaphosa’s account of conversations between them as “containing distortions, deliberate attacks and even lies. SA, he said, was “in no position” to play the role of peacemaker. And if SA wanted confrontation, Rwanda would “deal with the matter in that context any day”.

At one level, this is showmanship. The bellicosity is unlikely to escalate into any more of a shooting war than it already is.

For more than 30 years, no matter how disgracefully or foolishly the ANC has behaved, it has somehow escaped the consequences of its actions.

But the invulnerability cloak gifted to it by a history of white oppression, its standing as Africa’s oldest liberation movement and a global reverence of Nelson Mandela, seem to be slowly losing its power. The free ride is over.

NOW READ: Lamola warns attacks on SA soldiers in DRC a potential ‘war crime’ [VIDEO]